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Not sure the impact of new paid, new free and trending.
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Ah extrapolation by mean difference. My favourite part is the assumption that growth will continue to accelerate as market share increases, when firstly, that doesn't make any sense, and secondly, we have data from Firefox's growth showing that the opposite happens.
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This article seems to forget that 1. IE is getting better, as much as we all hate to admit it, 2. IE is still the default browser of the world's most popular operating system, 3. People are lazy and, as IE keeps getting better/faster, are going to be even more happy to just settle and get on with browsing the web - not argue over which browser is better.
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- Are there any public market comparables? If yes, their P&L and financial statements may be useful. Even if there is not a pureplay public competitor, if they have a business unit that competes with you in some sense, you might be able to download their 10k (annual report) or 10q (quarterly) and get some insights in the notes that management must provide or business unit level financials they might provide. This is available for free on sec.gov or even Yahoo finance I imagine.
- If there are public market comparables, look for equity research about them. In particular, look for reports entitled "Initiating Coverage". These reports when a bank or fin institution starts covering a company usually start with a market overview which can be pretty amazing for intel about the market. Warning: These reports are expensive so best to find a buddy on Wall Street with access to Bloomberg or Reuters who can find download them for you.
- As a proxy for interest in the space, you might want to see if VCs have recently invested in companies that are similar. Their interest is both a good validator of the market and based on their investment size, it's a proxy for how big the market opportunity might be. This doesn't get you to your specific numbers but maybe a proxy for market interest.
- Google it. Kind of lame, and I'm sure you've done it but just google "number of investors in the United States" and you may get some places to start. Sometimes even eHow or yahoo answers will be the first breadcrumb to finding something useful
Now to more specific sources for your market:
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- Goto the website of FINRA which is for Financial Industry. It's mainly for brokers and wealth managers I believe, but there will probably be some line on there about how Finra was established to protect the X million US investors. There may be other regulatory bodies with data. These government sites are a treasure especially if you dig around. They'll prob give you investable assets, # of people, etc etc.
- See if you can find the going public documents of some past successes in the online investing space. I believe TheStreet.com went public. Maybe you can get their S1 filing for when they went public and you can find some stats in there. They are trying to "sell" their IPO at the time so they may provide some stats on how big the market is.
Hope that is helpful.
Have you found research reports that might be valuable but are too expensive? I'd imagine a space this big would have tons of research reports about it. Perhaps an incorrect assumption.
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One of the worst myths floating around the blogosphere is the wait by some for a “unifying technology” that will make things “simpler and easier” to develop services and apps for the global mobile market. At times, some have claimed that Java (J2ME) was the answer, then Flash Lite, then Webkit browsers, and most recently HTML5
. While each solution has its merits, there will not be any unification anytime soon. Even as HTML5 richness has improved substantially, browser support will still vary and many, many phones will not support HTML5 for 7+ years.Anyone who is waiting for a single silver bullet to solve fragmentation issues in mobile will be waiting a very long time, especially if they want to go after the global mobile opportunity. As such, it is important for mobile entrepreneurs to wade in and sort it out for themselves. No one is going to flatten the industry such as Microsoft did in the PC-era to make it simple.
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Ask former execs of PSINet (bankrupt operator), AST (bankrupt PC maker) & Packard Bell (bankrupt PC maker) about the impact of the WINTEL “standard” on other PC industry players, and you’ll get a sense why Nokia, Motorola,Verizon, & Sprint aren’t rushing to follow their PC-era predecessors. Common standards = commodity standards for many players in this industry. Sadly, whether or not there is an elegant technical answer, it will be hard to drive any single set of worldwide standards given the different economic incentives of the many players, however good it would be for developers.
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Attend the competition is a way to do marketing.
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One of the more frustrating problems is the apparent inconsistency of the Android Market search functionality. When Google Listen for Android was released yesterday, Hank searched “listen,” found it immediately, and installed it. The same search on my phone turned up nothing. Neither of the two methods Google suggests work for me. I’ve found other similar reports online, and it seems that Android market content is inconsistent for different locations. Likely what happened is that Hank was using a proxy when he installed Listen, so he was actually accessing the American market. It’s a bit confusing, although not exactly the phone’s fault, either.
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