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Servan-Schreiber suggests that it may not be long before participatory technologies become a prerequisite for employees reared on a diet of blogs and wikis. “A whole generation of workers has grown up with the internet and everything it entails,” he says. “It means they expect to be heard and to be part of the conversation all the time, including at work. They expect that people will listen and take them seriously. Prediction markets provide an answer for that yearning.”

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The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.

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On the Internet they’ve been shown to deliver more accurate predictions about political elections and movie revenues than other techniques like polls and statistical forecasting methods. Pioneering efforts to use them within companies show that they’re also highly accurate when deployed behind the firewall (see, for example, the case I wrote with Karim Lakhani and Peter Coles about Google’s internal prediction market and this paper written by Google’s Bo Cowgill and his colleagues).

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A new study of prediction markets in the corporate world was released, recently. It’s called Forecasting Consumer Products Using Prediction Markets, by Kai Trepte and Rajaram Narayanaswamy. Lo and behold, the prediction markets failed to provide any significant improvement in accuracy over that of the traditional corporate forecasting process.

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The Farmetrics® Prediction Market, which offers participants an innovative way to gain critical information on planted acreage, yield and harvested acreage for a variety of crops, announced today the top 10 winners for its 2008 contests. Winners were determined by the number of Reward Points they accumulated, which are awarded based on the accuracy of the participants' predictions versus the United States Department of Agriculture results for the year. These Reward Points can be redeemed for award cards, which can be used for a variety of retail merchandise, travel and entertainment options.

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A friend and colleague from IBM just shared with me that IBM has established a Prediction Market pilot using the Spigit software. It is currently open for all to view and/or register. Concensus Point has launched a Prediction Market within BestBuy called TagTrade. Mercury Research has provided a solid list of Prediction Market software providers in their blog.

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