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A new study of prediction markets in the corporate world was released, recently. It’s called Forecasting Consumer Products Using Prediction Markets, by Kai Trepte and Rajaram Narayanaswamy. Lo and behold, the prediction markets failed to provide any significant improvement in accuracy over that of the traditional corporate forecasting process.

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have you had a look at spigit? We used it to create a world-first ideas mgmt system internally that runs like a stock market...

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The Farmetrics® Prediction Market, which offers participants an innovative way to gain critical information on planted acreage, yield and harvested acreage for a variety of crops, announced today the top 10 winners for its 2008 contests. Winners were determined by the number of Reward Points they accumulated, which are awarded based on the accuracy of the participants' predictions versus the United States Department of Agriculture results for the year. These Reward Points can be redeemed for award cards, which can be used for a variety of retail merchandise, travel and entertainment options.

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I wholeheartedly agree with the author’s contention that diversity is a key determinant of prediction market accuracy. I agree that characterizing prediction markets as being more like “betting exchanges” is appropriate, too. However, I disagree that the established research has proven the case for the accuracy contention, as I hope to explain, below.

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In a three-week experiment, GE Research turned its 85 employees into day traders, letting them watch market movements on their screens to decide whether to buy or sell any of 62 stocks. Only the stocks were product ideas in which the company had the option to develop. At stake was $50,000 in research funding that GE would allocate to the highest-valued project.

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