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08 Nov 09

The politics of hypocrisy, Part II | The Arabist

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Jon Alterman USA Pundits DC Assholes USAID

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب: Jon Alterman hails Dubai model (still)

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Jon Alterman USA Dubai Stupidity DC Pundits Orientalism

16 Jun 09

Ahmadinejad won. Get over it - Politico.com Print View

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Iran Elections Pundits USA

They ignore the fact that Ahmadinejad’s 62.6 percent of the vote in this year’s election is essentially the same as the 61.69 percent he received in the final count of the 2005 presidential election, when he trounced former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The shock of the “Iran experts” over Friday’s results is entirely self-generated, based on their preferred assumptions and wishful thinking.
Before the debates, both Mousavi and Ahmadinejad campaign aides indicated privately that they perceived a surge of support for Mousavi; after the debates, the same aides concluded that Ahmadinejad’s provocatively impressive performance and Mousavi’s desultory one had boosted the incumbent’s standing. Ahmadinejad’s charge that Mousavi was supported by Rafsanjani’s sons — widely perceived in Iranian society as corrupt figures — seemed to play well with voters.
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- More fundamentally, American “Iran experts” consistently underestimated Ahmadinejad’s base of support. Polling in Iran is notoriously difficult; most polls there are less than fully professional and, hence, produce results of questionable validity. But the one poll conducted before Friday’s election by a Western organization that was transparent about its methodology — a telephone poll carried out by the Washington-based Terror-Free Tomorrow from May 11 to 20 — found Ahmadinejad running 20 points ahead of Mousavi. This poll was conducted before the televised debates in which, as noted above, Ahmadinejad was perceived to have done well while Mousavi did poorly.
- American “Iran experts” assumed that “disastrous” economic conditions in Iran would undermine Ahmadinejad’s reelection prospects. But the International Monetary Fund projects that Iran’s economy will actually grow modestly this year (when the economies of most Gulf Arab states are in recession). A significant number of Iranians — including the religiously pious, lower-income groups, civil servants and pensioners — appear to believe that Ahmadinejad’s policies have benefited them.
- And, while many Iranians complain about inflation, the TFT poll found that most Iranian voters do not hold Ahmadinejad responsible. The “Iran experts” further argue that the high turnout on June 12 — 82 percent of the electorate — had to favor Mousavi. But this line of analysis reflects nothing more than assumptions.
- Some “Iran experts” argue that Mousavi’s Azeri background and “Azeri accent” mean that he was guaranteed to win Iran’s Azeri-majority provinces; since Ahmadinejad did better than Mousavi in these areas, fraud is the only possible explanation.
- But Ahmadinejad himself speaks Azeri quite fluently as a consequence of his eight years serving as a popular and successful official in two Azeri-majority provinces; during the campaign, he artfully quoted Azeri and Turkish poetry — in the original — in messages designed to appeal to Iran’s Azeri community. (And we should not forget that the supreme leader is Azeri.) The notion that Mousavi was somehow assured of victory in Azeri-majority provinces is simply not grounded in reality.
- With regard to electoral irregularities, the specific criticisms made by Mousavi — such as running out of ballot paper in some precincts and not keeping polls open long enough (even though polls stayed open for at least three hours after the announced closing time) — could not, in themselves, have tipped the outcome so clearly in Ahmadinejad’s favor.
- Moreover, these irregularities do not, in themselves, amount to electoral fraud even by American legal standards. And, compared with the U.S. presidential election in Florida in 2000, the flaws in Iran’s electoral process seem less significant.
- But one could more plausibly suggest that if a “coup” is being attempted, it has been mounted by the losers in Friday’s election. It was Mousavi, after all, who declared victory on Friday even before Iran’s polls closed. And three days before the election, Mousavi supporter Rafsanjani published a letter criticizing the leader’s failure to rein in Ahmadinejad’s resort to “such ugly and sin-infected phenomena as insults, lies and false allegations.” Many Iranians took this letter as an indication that the Mousavi camp was concerned their candidate had fallen behind in the campaign’s closing days.

22 Apr 09

Should we support internet activists in the Middle East? | Marc Lynch

What debt?! This article is extremely patronizing and egotistic that I wanna throw up, matched only with the egotistic reply from Tahawy.. in addition to the usual name dropping and the by-the-way-he's-a-friend-too line.
Egyptian bloggers are not looking for sponsorship from any Western govt. The latter are our enemies and the backers of Mubarak's dictatorship. Nor do we look from help from pundits who sit with dissidents and then go lecture in West Point and Counterterrorism conferences sharing platform and prestige with murderes and torturers.
Egypt's bloggers welcome ONLY the intervention of foreign non-state actors, like labor unions, human rights watchdogs, student associations, etc.. but not the US govt.. Actually we want the US govt to fuck off and leave us alone..

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A7a Imperialism USA Bloggers hypocrisy Pundits Marc Lynch Egypt diplomacy pimplomacy

One particular blogger in Egypt recently was beaten up because he did not pay his internet bill on time. Journalists and writer associations in Sweden sent him enough money to pay for his internet connection under the next five years.
- Is that referrence to Wael? - on 2009-04-23
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