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巴菲特这些方法看起来简单，实际上非常难做到。他斗的不是智力，是整个对世界的看法，也就是世界观。

后来发现和巴菲特本人、和其他做投资很成功的人，我们的想法基本一样，就是干任何一件事，不要先考虑赢，要先考虑你会不会输。

投资里面的最高境界就是你充分理解了真理。巴菲特充分理解了这个世界的变化，而且他起得早，活得长，用了50多年来做价值投资，复利加上足够长的时间，结果等于巨额的财富。巴菲特之所以成功，是因为他很早就发现了价值投资的真理，然后坚持用一生来实践。

巴菲特突出的一点就是他的定力。

另外一种是李嘉诚，每一次市场低迷的时候他就买，他一买我们就跟着买，道理很简单，从理性来说就是便宜了，但那是市场最恐慌的时候，一般人下不了手。这时候他就买和黄、长实这些他最了解的东西。然后高峰期他就卖，十几年如一日就变成香港首富了

还有日本的首富系山英太郎，他的做法也不谋而合。这些人战胜市场的方法就是集中投资。

做任何投资之前评估能不能输钱，而不是明天赚多少，这一点是相通的

因为钱只要不少，机会总是有的，比匆匆忙忙操作套在里面好很多。机会永远就有，你要有这个耐心，把钱放在那里，等着大机会的出现，大部分人做不到这一点。

但有一条是对的，就是不懂不做。投资还是很难琢磨的一件事情，它是一个综合的能力，像芒格说的“隔山理论”，我们选了一些好公司，也漏掉了很多，但是巴菲特说，不怕漏，只怕错。

李驰：这是一个“巴菲特俱乐部”，这些人都相信价值投资，但是投资的品种都不一样，芒格和巴菲特的投资都不一样，只有一些是重合的，但是大家都赚钱。这就是个人能力所限造成的。比如我们漏掉了张裕，深圳的人不太喝张裕。假设研究更细致一点，有可能发现这个股票。再比如有人坚定地看好烟台万华，现在看确实不错，但我们没有买。他了解这个，这是他的能力圈，就该他赚钱。我们弄不懂就不干。不懂不做，做就要翻几倍出来。那么我们能不能让懂的东西更多一些？懂得多了再做会不会好一点

冯仑说看一个企业好不好，一看老板是不是整天跟官员混，或者跟银行行长混；二看这个企业有没有东西在街上卖；还有三句话能不能把这个企业说清楚。

就是找到一种明显便宜的东西，我们理解了它，就买下来。这种机会每隔几年就会在二级市场出现一次，非常有规律。这样的股票，往往是要等几年，然后一口气赚几倍，再等几年，平均下来每年20%多，看你能不能坚持拿着。

对估值偏高的优秀公司，我们有足够的耐心等它跌到便宜的时候再出手

我们有化繁为简的能力，对报表基本不做深入研究。

因为我们是要这个企业看5到10年会怎么样，绝对不会因为这个信息晚两天就过期了。事实上，我们是充分利用了公开信息进行投资，比如研究报告基本指出了谁是最好的，如万科，招行。

用巴菲特的一句话，就是带轮子的不买。实际上巴菲特在航空股上是吃过亏的，所以他一辈子也不碰了。航空股对投资人是一个苦果，是两头受气的股票，票价总有降价的压力，另外油也不知不觉地涨，很难产生持续增长。

我们自己的这个风格和可能产生的状况非常清楚。

这400年来的市场波动其实很简单，就是画两条线，低的时候是十倍甚至几倍的PE，高的时候30倍到60倍的PE，400年如一日，永远在这两条线之间波动。你掌握了这个规律，再有耐心等，就可以赚钱。400年的波动规律给机会让你发财，只不过每次高低会有一点不同。你在这儿卖了以后，再涨一些，都没关系。除非是神仙，不可能卖到最高点。你只要在这些地方卖掉都对，然后就等，当然这个等的时间是很长的。

这个叫“大象理论”，是古代人捕大象的一个方法。就是当象群冲过来的时候，你就让开，让它闯过去，不要硬碰。然后你在这个路上布下陷阱，过些天，这些大象就慢慢从原路溜达回来了，回来就掉在这个陷井里面。

2001年我跟人说，不要再做了，风险很大，好多朋友都不听，总觉得还有一段钱可以赚，我干么不赚？因为市场不是一天掉下来了，它有几个月做顶，总觉得还可以往上冲，那叫做抢吃鱼尾，没有什么意义。

市场很热闹的时候，总有资金涌进来。价值投资的人怎么做？在这个时候，李嘉诚就两种做法，一种是减持，一种是增发，完了之后市场就进入低潮。到低潮的时候，他已经拿钱在那儿等着了，再买回自己原来的东西。市场又热闹起来，又把它卖出去。李嘉诚就是长期干这个的。市场的高位他就增发募集资金，稀释他的股份。低的时候，他再以很便宜的价格增加控股比例。所以他实际上是一个超级投资家。

巴菲特就是买入，终身持有，而且确实有超常的眼光来买一个持续增长几十年的东西。总的来说，就是以投资的心态买入，买的时候10倍PE，我假设卖的时候也是10倍PE，但是因为业绩翻番了，那时候10倍PE卖我就赚钱了。但是市场疯狂起来，也可能卖到30倍PE，

我们很多投资都是这样，当初买的时候只要求不输，并没想着要赚多少，结果以这种心态买的股票往往都赚很多。

我到过很多地方，发现有各式各样的生活方式，那里的人也很快乐。

我觉得这个市场里边真的是卧虎藏龙，有很多闷声发财的人你不知道，他们的方法其实万变不离其宗，这个“宗”就是价值投资。像巴菲特这一类思路的人在全球到处都有，像日本首富、沙特王子、美国以前的什么大王，相当一部分钱是投资赚来的。其实巴菲特并非打遍天下无敌手，跟他用同样方法投资的人很多，但是赚了钱卖掉一点来消费了，结果复利算下来就差了几十倍、几百倍都有可能，所以那些人不会被市场发现，都在茫茫人海里悄悄地赚钱。条条大路通罗马，但是你的心态首先要平静，心态平静离成功就近了。

股票投资如交友，追涨杀跌就如同势利小人，交不到患难知己；股票分析如选妻，要按持有一生的计划来精挑细选才不会走眼；股票收益如种树，要想快速致富只能收获杂草

只有在股市，才会发生买股票竟没有挑二斤西红柿仔细的事；只有在股市，精明的人们才会将巨款交给经营什么都不知道的陌生人也不问一下用途；只有在股市，职业会计师们才听消息就买卖而从不看报表；只有在股市，百万富翁才会俯首倾听毛头经纪人如何赚钱的指导；只有在股市，企业股东的朝三暮四竟被冠以“T+0”而作为重大利好。

杜拉克说：做正确的事，也要正确地做事。

张瑞敏曾说：什么叫不简单？就是把一件简单的事一千遍一万遍的做好。巴菲特怎么伟大？我的感悟就是他能够把最简单的投资行为几十年如一日的坚持做好。投资股票不是造原子弹，普通的智力完全够用。它更多的是对做正确的事的坚持

无法选择的坚持并不值得称赞，在众多选择之下的坚守才最令人敬佩。

威尔逊说“世界上没有什么东西能够取代持之以恒的精神。才华不能，有才华但不成功的人随处可见。天赋不能，天赋无回报几乎是一句谚语。教育不能，这个世界上挤满了受过教育的被遗弃者。只有毅力和决心是万能的。”

我不是天才,
我要用别人喝咖啡的时间来读书,
我要用别人喝咖啡的金钱来投资。

The answer is you don’t want investors to think that what they read today is important in terms of their investment strategy. Their investment strategy should factor in that [...] if you knew what was going to happen in the economy, you still wouldn’t necessarily know what was going to happen in the stock market.

You have to have the right temperament.

You don't need extraordinary intelligence to succeed as an investor.

You need a philosophy and the ability to think independently...It doesn't make any difference what other people think of a stock. What matters is whether you know enough to evaluate the business," he opined.

All this requires some temperamental detachment from other people's behavior. Both Charlie and I have a natural instinct in that direction. We value our opinions more than others' -- perhaps to an extreme!"

just stick to the fundamentals year after year

What would the professors do? A great many of the formulas [they use to analyze securities and markets] are dead wrong. They exist purely to give the intellectual class something to do. We don't do anything just exercise our intellectual proclivity for mathematical formulas."

Then Buffet said one of the most remarkable things I've ever heard him say: "There's no reason we should become fearful if a stock goes down. If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month

if you are a true investor, you should shop for stocks the same way you shop for anything else: Look for sale prices, and never regard falling prices as inherently bad news. Instead, falling prices create the opportunity to buy even more of something that was already worth owning.

To the investor, the market's opinions do not matter.

Then Buffett marveled at the fact that "You have one bond insurer whose stock went from $96 to $4 [AMBAC (ABK)] and they're still rated AAA. The other one issued 14% paper with Treasuries at 4% [MBIA (MBI)] and they're still rated AAA." At that point, Munger elicited laughter from the room by intoning, "The rating agencies, with 20-20 hindsight, could have done better."

Talking to the CEOs isn't very useful. When they're lying, they believe it themselves a lot of the time. I want to see how people behave in different situations.

We're not in the business of forecasting what the market will do in the next year," said Buffett. "But if a market goes down, we like that. There's no way Charlie and I get upset when stocks go down. We like it, because falling prices give us the opportunity to buy more good businesses at better prices."

Asked how he evaluates financial stocks when so many have balance sheets complicated by derivatives, Buffett said: "There are some that I can't value. I probably couldn't value them even if I worked there, even if I were in charge, and even if I had a year to do it. It's just too complicated [with such large positions in complex derivatives]....Most of them, I'm agnostic. I guess that means I don't trust them. When you're buying stock in a financial institution, you should have a reason to be quite comfortable with the risk-assessment capabilities of the people in charge...to have a real fix on the people running the institution. We can't do that with a lot of [banks]. We just can't figure out what they're doing most of the time.... [the accounting doesn't] really spell out where the institution stands. So you'd better know more about the people running it than any set of figures can give you."

Buffett added that not long ago, he read the 270-page 10-K annual report of a bank he was curious about. "After a couple of hours," he said, "I had about 25 pages marked with big question marks that I couldn't answer." (This raises the obvious question: If Warren Buffett can't understand the financial statements of big banks with derivatives, who can?)

Capitalism wouldn't exist without failure."

Added Buffett: "Capitalism without failure is like Christianity without hell. These institutions not only brewed the Kool-Aid but drank it. [Some of the banks and mortgage companies] were like an arsonist who got caught in the house after he set it on fire."

Buffett is like the legendary guy who sold his stocks in 1928 and went fishing until 1933. That guy probably didn't exist. The stock market is habit-forming: You can always persuade yourself that there are bargains around. Even in 1929. Or in 1970. But Buffett did kick the habit. He did "go fishing" from 1969 to 1974. If he had stuck around, he concedes, he would have had mediocre results.

"I call investing the greatest business in the world," he says, "because you never have to swing." You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it."

But pity the pros at the investment institutions. They're the victims of impossible "performance" measurements. Says Buffett, continuing his baseball imagery, "It's like Babe Ruth at bat with 50,000 fans and the club owner yelling, 'Swing, you bum!' and some guy is trying to pitch him an intentional walk. They know if they don't take a swing at the next pitch, the guy will say, 'Turn in your uniform.'" Buffett claims he set up his partnership to avoid these pressures.

Stay dispassionate and be patient is Buffett's message. "You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with Pepsi, you should be OK." First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression.

Buy into a company because you want to own it, not because you want the stock to go up."

Just common sense ones. Buy stocks that sell at ridiculously low prices. Low by what standards? By the conventional ones of net worth, book value, the value of the business as a going concern. Above all, stick with what you know; don't get too fancy. "Draw a circle around the businesses you understand and then eliminate those that fail to qualify on the basis of value, good management and limited exposure to hard times."

"You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you." Another way of saying that wisdom, truth, lies elsewhere than in the moment's moods.

We reminded Buffett of the old play on the Kipling lines: "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs … maybe they know something you don't."

It has three big lessons, a) stock is a part of a business b) market serves you doesn’t instruct, and c) margin of safety.

We buy businesses with great management in place. We have seen their record. They come with business. Our job is not to select great managers, our job is to retain them. A majority are wealthy. They don’t have a monetary reason to work in many cases. We have nineteen people at headquarters, and 250k around world. Our job is to make sure they have same enthusiasm. We have to see passion in eyes and believe the passion will remain, but we can create an environment to keep them happy. At these annual meetings, we tell them what a great job they did and make them feel appreciated. We don’t have contracts – it doesn’t work. Our managers are appreciated. I can’t be of help if you are looking at group of MBAs. They know at this point in life how to fool you, what answers to give you. I would look for person with passion for job, doing more than their share, good communicators.

You only need 2 courses, how to value a business and how to think about stock market fluctuations.

what matters is buying businesses at the right price.

You must have attitude where you aren’t influenced by market. You need a mindset, and you need to have the attitude to divorce yourself from letting the market influence you.

I’ve never given up anything that made a difference to me

I’m giving away excess, not necessity

We let managers run businesses, and their standards over the years have been extraordinary. I am very happy turning over keys of financial and business performance. I write them a letter every two years, and I ask them to send a letter with successor. I also tell them we have all the money we need. We never want to trade reputation for money. Not only do they behave to conform with the law, but act as if there was going to be a story in local paper in morning written by intelligent investigative reporter. There are no budgets, we have no incentives to cause people to do anything or push people to play games.

Dilesh, California. How do you maintain your good mental and physical health?
　　
　　WB: You start with a balanced diet. [laughter] If Charlie and I can’t have a decent attitude, who can? We get to do what we like every day, and we work with people who love to do what they do. We are not forced to do what we don’t want. I get to do what I like everyday. We are very blessed in so many ways. How could you be sour? Charlie is 84 and I am 77. We have slowed down but we pretend we haven’t. There is no reason to look at minuses in life. It would be crazy. We count our blessings. Not much more to it than that.

Get the right spouse. Charlie talks about the man who spent twenty years looking for a perfect woman and found her. Unfortunately she was looking for perfect man.

Go to work for organization you admire or an individual you admire

You have to find your passion in life.

I enjoy it. It is a terrible mistake to sleep walk through your life. Unless Shirley Maclain is right you won’t have another one.

You’ll do better if you have passion for something in which you have aptitude. If Warren had gone into ballet, no one would have heard of him.

Ability to communicate in writing and speaking – it is under taught – and enormously important. If you can communicate well, you have an enormous advantage. Force yourself into situations where you have to develop those abilities.

I avoided all classes that had public speaking, I got physically ill if I had to speak. I signed up for Dale Carnegie course. Gave them check for $100, then I went home and stopped payment on check. I was in Omaha, took $100 cash to Wally Kean, I took that Carnegie course, and then I went to University of Omaha to start teaching – knowing I had to get in front of people.

India, how to grow small business into big business?
　　
　　WB: Berkshire was a small business at one time. It just takes time, it is nature of compound interest. You can’t build it in one day, or one week. Charlie and I never tried to do a master stroke to convert Berkshire into something four times bigger. We have felt and kept doing what we have understood consistently and have fun doing it then it’ll be something quite large at some point. Nothing magical. It would be nice to multiply money in a few weeks. In a general way we have done same things for years. We will have more businesses in a few years, some will do worse, most will do better. It is an automatic formula for getting ahead, but not galloping. We are happy not doing anything at all. As Gypsy Rose Lee said, I have everything I had before, just two inches lower. We want everything in 2 yrs to be higher.

Investing is laying out money now to get more money later on

you are looking to asset itself. Do I understand enough about business so that financials will be able to tell me meaningful things that will help me to foresee the statements in the future

I have bought stocks on the way you describe. They were in businesses I understood, and if I could buy at 40% of X, I’d be okay with margin of safety. If you don’t tell me nature of business, financial statements won’t tell me much.

We use our general understanding of business and look to specifics from financial statements.

One metric catches people. We prefer businesses that drown in cash. An example of a different business is construction equipment. You work hard all year and there is your profit sitting in the yard. We avoid businesses like that.

Oil won’t run out - it doesn’t work this way. At some point the daily productive capacity will level off and then start declining gradually. There is the depletion aspect and the decline curves. We are producing 86m barrels per day or so, more than ever produced. We are closer, by my calculations, to almost our productive capacity, than we have ever been. I think our surplus capacity is less, and quite a bit less, than in past. Whatever that peak is, whether 5 or 10 yrs, the world will adjust, and we will think about it. Adjustments will cause demand to taper off. I don’t know how much oil is there, but there are lots of barrels of oil in place. We never recover total potential. We may have better engineering recovery in future. It is nothing like an on and off switch. You may still have enormous political considerations to get access to avail oil since it so important. There is nothing you can do over short period of time to wean world off oil.

We’ve always been fans of living within your means and income. You’ll have a lot more income later on. They will follow example of their parents. Parents don’t covet other people’s belongings, don’t increase cost of living which is not necessarily increasing quality of living. If you go too tough on children they go crazy later on. There are plenty of people I don’t advise to save.

You need to live a life that is true to yourself. We don’t encourage extreme frugality. You are not a better or worse person if you live differently from your neighbor.

I read it in Spring 2002, and I never asked anyone else their opinion. I thought worth 100bil. It was selling for 35bil. What is sense of talking to management? It doesn’t make any difference. At value of 40bil, you would need to refine analysis. We don’t like things you have to carry out to 3 decimal places. If someone weighed somewhere between 300-350 pounds, I wouldn’t need precision -- I would know they were fat. If you can’t make a decision on Petrochina off the figures, you go on to next one. You weren’t going to learn more if you thought their big field was going to decline out slightly faster, etc.

We have lower due diligence expenses than anyone in America. I know of a place that pays over 200mil to its accountants every year, and I know we are safer because we think like engineers – we want margins of reliability. It is a very dicey process.

A brand is a promise. Coca-cola delivers something to you. Virgin Cola – an unusual promise in a product. I couldn’t figure it out, and whatever it is it didn’t work. Don Keogh would know. Who would buy a can at 2cents a can less than Coca-cola? We feel pretty good about branded products as leaders in the field. There is nothing unusual about Kraft that’s different from Kellogg, some good factors are price. If you don’t pay too much, you will do okay. But you won’t get superrich, as attributes are well recognized.

Charlie and I spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit us out of the blue that other people don’t include in their thinking. We miss a lot of opportunities. But we think essential when managing other people’s money.

Need someone you trust with analytics, but also ability to contemplate new possibilities and risks. That is a rare quality.

We run Berkshire so that if world working in different way tomorrow we don’t have a problem. We are not dependent on others. It gives up earning higher returns 99% or 99.5% of the time, but in one year – we wouldn’t feel comfortable running business that way – why be exposed to ruin and disgrace and embarrassment? If we can return a decent return on capital what is an extra point? This can not be farmed out. Management thought they were farming it out at some institutions.

You can see how risk averse Berkshire is. We try to behave in a way so that no rational person will worry about our credit. We also try to behave in a way that if people don’t like our credit we wouldn’t notice for months. That double layering of protection against risk is like breathing.

We don’t worry about stuff we miss. We know there are many things we won’t know enough when we finish thinking about it, so we throw it out. We make a decision in five minutes. We know about a lot of industries, and there are some things we don’t understand. We like to expand universe of knowledge. If we can’t make a decision in five minutes, we can’t learn enough in five months. If we get a call, with business for sale – or I am reading a paper or 10k, we will move right then if big difference between price and value.

I think Olympics should be allowed to continue forever with everyone participating. It is hard to grade a couple hundred couple countries. It is a terrible mistake to try to start grading, more that participate the better, I would not start getting punitive. I think it’s a terrible mistake to ban countries from Olympics. The United States only started allowing women to vote in 1920s and I consider that a huge violation of human rights, but we wouldn’t (want to) be banned from the Olympics the years prior. I think that overtime they are contributing and getting better.

Many are distressed by imperfections in China, so I ask - is china more or less imperfect as decades have gone by ? it is moving in right direction. That is a good thing, and it is not good to pick worst thing about a person you don’t like and obsess about it.

You do better with people you are working with if you nudge him/her a bit

character the institution. It will be reflection of CEO you have.

You should know culture of management and institution before making decision to buy a bank. We own Wells Fargo and M&T, but it doesn’t mean they are immune. But likely they are immune from institutional stupidity. There was wise man that said there are more banks than bankers. If you think about that a while you will get my point.

Most important investment is in themselves. Potential horsepower is rarely achieved. Just imagine you are 16 – going to give you car of your choice. But only car you would get for rest of your life. How would you choose? Of course you will read manual 5 times. How would you treat it? Keep it garaged. Change oil twice as frequently, keep rust to minimum because you know it’ll last a life time. I tell students that you get only one body and one mind. Better treat it same way. Hard to change habits at age 50 or 60. Anything students do to invest in bodies and mind is good, particularly in the mind.

When I get classes in university I ask them to buy one classmate to own for rest of life. They pick the person who not with highest IQ, but who are most effective, the ones you want to be around. These people are easy to work with, generous, on time, not claiming credit, helping others. There are things that turn other people on, and turning other people off. Those are good habits to develop.

I still lean strongly towards fair value accounting – it is hard to use, but should we use cost? I think there are more troubles when you start openly valuing things at prices that don’t matter instead of best estimates even if inaccurate. I would stick with financials reporting assets at fair value.

The test on dividends is can you create more than one dollar of value than the one you retain

We like companies where we have investments to pay to us money they can’t use effectively.

Most important job you have is to be the teacher to your children. You are the big great thing to them, you don’t get rewind button, you don’t get to do it twice, teach by what you do not what you say. By the time they get formal school they would have learned more from you than school. Provide warmth and food and everything else. It won’t change when they get to graduate school – and you get no rewind button. You teach with what you do, not what you say.

I devour books

Differing people learn in differing ways. I was put together to learn by reading

With a book, I can learn what I want at speed that works. It works for my nature. For those people who are like me, welcome, it is a nice fraternity.

每当看到管理层意气风发的花着股东的钱大肆收购时，总是保留着一份冷眼旁观的态度，西谚语“绝对的权力产生绝对的腐败”，在公司的治理上倒可以推理出“绝对的放任产生绝对的堕落”，芒格所说的逆向思维给我的启示在于：研究那些破败公司的破败史意义更大，这可以使得我们避开那些金玉之下的败絮。从另外一个角度，我们投资还是要选取那些有前景的行业，一些行业可以忍受一个弱智的管理层，但是一些行业根本付不起这个代价，巴菲特说他喜欢那些傻瓜都能够经营的企业，因为最终企业都会碰到一个傻子来经营，就是此意。

基金科瑞的分红方案超过了我当初投资时的分析，保守的投资最终获得了回报，投资就是这样，经历的越多，越理解那些朴素的道理：安全边际，去年最后一次保守的操怍让我更加深刻的理解了它。

突然间，记起一位记者采访沃伦·巴菲特时，也曾问到，“在您至今所进行的投资中，哪一次的收益最高？”沃伦·巴菲特想了想，从办公桌抽屉里拿出一个发黄的笔记本，笑呵呵地说：“就是这个。”记者不信，说：“您在开玩笑吧？”这时，巴菲特严肃起来：“不，先生，这是真的。这个是我小时候用0.5美元买的，现在已成为我最珍贵的财富了。”记者带着疑问打开笔记本，看看里面到底有什么宝贝，才发现上面记录了他的学习体会，读书感想，突然闪现的投资想法以及一些生活和投资经历。


　　原来，巴菲特所说的最好的投资，是学习、读书，总结经验、教训，充实自己的头脑，增长自己的学问，培养自己的眼光。

Well, who knows on that? But I don't play sectors, Joe. When I -- the thing that makes my job fun is when I go to work in the morning, I don't really know what's going to happen. So, two months ago, I didn't have the faintest idea I would be investing 6-1/2 billion of Berkshire’s money in this particular transaction. You know, and then the phone rings. I love it when the phone rings. Usually it's the wrong number but every now and then something happens.

Well, what holds an interest for me is a business I can understand and one that's got durable long-term competitive advantage and the good management and the price makes sense. If I can find that any place, I’ll do it. And a lot of times, things are just beyond my competence. Somebody can have a wonderful idea that I don't understand and God bless them. I'll stick with stuff I understand.

I don't know about the stock market in terms of what it will do.

My general feeling, and this is not a field of specialty for me, but my