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Disciplined Imagination: From Scenarios to Strategic Options

  • Envisioning the future

    In 1921 when someone suggested that airplanes might sink battleships by dropping bombs on them, U.S. Secretary of War Newton Baker remarked: "That idea is so damned nonsensical and impossible that I'm willing to stand on the bridge of a battleship while that nitwit tries to hit it from the air."

  • Managers who can expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures will be in a much better position to take advantage of the unexpected opportunities that will surely come along.

Daniel Finkelstein: Why do people disbelieve in global warming? | Daniel Finkelstein - Times Online

  • The hypothesis turned out to be correct. Some Conservatives answered, largely supporting the monetary control Bill and opposing the agricultural trade Bill. Some Labour supporters answered, revealing the opposite bias. But overall there was a weak but distinct relationship between less political knowledge and greater willingness to answer.
  • The second hypothesis was more startling. The authors believed that the more political knowledge you believe you have (as opposed to actually have), the more likely you were to answer. And this turned out to be strongly true. It was also true that if asked about your political knowledge before being asked the other questions, you were even more likely to respond on the fictitious bills.
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