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Blanchflower, who was until recently a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee and has long warned of a surge in unemployment and youth joblessness in particular, called for measures such as wage subsidies to encourage employers to take on young workers. He also advocated removing national insurance contributions for anyone under 25 for two years. He predicted unemployment would keep rising "well into 2010" probably to around 3.4 million. "Attempts to cut public spending and withdraw monetary and fiscal stimulus too soon may push unemployment closer to 4 or even 5 million," he added.
He cited research signalling that youth unemployment raises unemployment, lowers wages, worsens health and lowers job satisfaction 25 years later. "Youth unemployment, especially of long duration, creates permanent scars not temporary blemishes," he said.

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That realisation alone should temper some of the optimism buoying financial markets. But the prospect of a “new normal” (a phrase popularised by Mohamed El-Erian, the boss of Pimco, a fund manager) still spans at least two distinct possibilities. One is that the world economy returns roughly to its pre-crisis rate of growth, without regaining the ground lost. That, the IMF points out, is what happens after most financial crises. The second, more depressing possibility is that growth stays at a permanently lower rate, with investment, employment and productivity growth all feebler than before.

Strikingly, the authors contend that “dirty elections are bad for economic growth by skewing politicians’ incentives.” This is because, they find, good economic performance makes a huge difference to an incumbent’s chance of re-election whether the vote is free or rigged, adding about three years’ to his or her tenure. Although economic success wins rewards in both systems, in clean ones, it adds 40% to a president’s time, whereas in dirty ones, the rewards of growth are swamped by those of rigging, which more than doubles the time in power. So rigging makes the economy less important to a president’s future—a rejoinder to the Chinese claim that in developing countries “managed democracy” is better for growth than an electoral free-for-all.

Most outlying estates have not had Castle Vale’s makeover. Many are shabby and a long way from shops, jobs and power. Frankley, an estate that lies at the end of an infrequent 40-minute bus ride south from Birmingham, is one. “Here feels so far away from the power base,” complains Andy Ross, a community worker who recently lost a colleague after an unexpected edict from city hall unilaterally deployed him elsewhere.
Frankley has had a particularly rough time, straddling the boundary between Birmingham and a neighbouring council. Squabbles over who is responsible for drains, street lighting and other services mean that, sometimes, work goes undone. Ray Goodwin, who works for Birmingham Settlement, a local charity, says that these slip-ups leave gaps for the BNP. “Someone will come round and take your rubbish away, or mend your fence. The next time he knocks it’s to ask for your vote,” he says. Frankley is not alone in feeling cut-off: national polling shows that whites feel less in control of their communities and country than any other ethnic group (see chart).