Bertrand Duperrin's Library tagged unpredictability → View Popular, Search in Google

Apr

2012

Design Principles for Complex, Unpredictable, People Oriented Systems

"An IBM Global CEO Study conducted in 2010 concluded that complexity was the primary challenge emerging out of its conversations with 1,500 CEOs and senior government officials. “CEOs told us they operate in a world that is substantially more volatile, uncertain and complex. Many shared the view that incremental changes are no longer sufficient in a world that is operating in fundamentally different ways.” "

blog.irvingwb.com/...e-people-oriented-systems.html

- Preview

management adaptability unpredictability complexity organizationaldesign organization creativity innovation services serviceeconomy

These same CEOs cited creativity as the most important leadership quality they look for over the next five years.
Business and business schools are supposed to be all about applying hard, that is, quantitative, analytical approaches to management. What then do we mean by bringing seemingly soft topics like design and creativity to business and why is it so important in today’s world?
14 more annotation(s)...
- Analytical approaches work well when you have a pretty good understanding of the product you are developing or when you are dealing with a well defined problem
- But, they do not work so well when dealing with highly complex systems with fast changing, interacting components, where it is much less clear what is going on in the present, let alone how things will evolve into the future. We need different principles and processes to address this class of highly complex problems, many based on disruptive innovations which we have not encountered before
- In truth, design has spread like gas to almost all facets of human activity, from science and education to politics and policymaking. For a simple reason: one of design’s most fundamental tasks is to help people deal with change
- What do we mean by applying design principles to complex, unpredictable, people oriented systems and problems?
- The first is flexibility and adaptability. If you look at complex systems as a kind of spectrum, with natural biological systems – e.g., living organisms, ecosystems and evolution - at one end and physically engineered systems - e.g., bridges, airplanes and microprocessors - at the other, socio-technical systems fall someplace in between
- But the mechanisms to increase robustness will in turn make the system considerably more complex.
- This balancing act between complexity and robustness is never done.
- Quality of experience is the second major design principle I'd like to discuss. The industrial sector of the economy is oriented toward the production of physical goods. Product excellence and competitive costs are its key design objectives
- But, socio-technical systems are oriented toward people and services. While product excellence and competitive costs are also important to services, they are not enough.
- While advances in technology are now enabling us to bring major innovations to services, most of the really hard issues are not technical at all. They are human
- The bulk of research and innovation in services has to take place in the marketplace, where the people who consume the services are. The marketplace is truly the research lab for innovation in services, the place where new service ideas have to be developed, prototyped and tested.
- Finally, let me talk about the central role of marketing and communications as a design principle, arguably the least understood such principle.
- You have to engage your audience in a conversation about the future you are after. You have to gain their trust by clearly telling them what’s in your mind, your aspirations, your questions, your doubts, your frustrations, what you know and what you don't know.
- Advances in technology, - faster, more powerful, less expensive, - are concrete and visible. Design is subtle, more subjective, more open to human interpretation. But, as our increasingly advanced technologies enable us to build larger, more capable, more complex systems, the role of design becomes ever more important. It

Oct

2011

Lean and social

"The concept of waste has lately been transferred from manufacturing to other practices such as product development. According to lean principles, when a development project is started, the goal is to complete it as rapidly as possible. In a sense, ongoing development projects are just like inventory sitting around in a factory. Design and prototypes are only valuable when (paying) customers are involved."

eskokilpi.blogging.fi/...lean-and-social

- Preview

LEAN waste processes customer customerinvolvement communication networks agility agilebusiness unpredictability conversations dynamicprocesses dynamicbusiness

People are used to lean thinking when it comes to technology and processes but it is still very rare to look at taking waste out of communication. Many managers still trivialize the power of conversation. They think that social interaction issues are soft compared to the hard issues of technology and process.
We still don’t understand that work is communication: we live and work in a network of conversations. Being lean means understanding that conversations are never neutral. They always affect the quality and pace of the outcome. Communication either accelerates or slows down. Communication either creates value or creates waste. Communication can create energy and inspiration or take energy away and reduce inspiration.
4 more annotation(s)...
- Many managers possess the skills that meet the challenges of static conditions. Those conditions are based on predictability and systems thinking, meaning that the crucial variables are known in advance. The main risk factor is then the accuracy of the predictions.
- In dynamic business conditions the management practices described above are not only unhelpful but cause damage and create waste rather than value.
  
  If you cannot predict you have to invest in real-time learning and iterations instead of more predictions.
- Success is based on speed of learning and responsiveness. Responsiveness is not possible if you are many handshakes away from the things that you should respond to. Learning is then based, not on teaching materials, but on conversations linking interdependent people.
- We need to embrace change, unpredictability and complexity as inescapable constants in all product development. It is about being lean and social!

Jul

2011

Systems Intelligence, Serendipity and Listening for the Better Decisions

"I’ve earlier blogged about how I find intuition and seeing the value of the tacit knowledge as very interesting perspectives for the decision-making. As social business and new ways of working are now changing the organizations and the entire business landscape, and further adding to the complexity – I’ll find it even more interesting to study decision-making and how understanding is created."

raesmaa.wordpress.com/...ening-for-the-better-decisions

- Preview

socialbusiness decisionmaking leadership uncertainty unpredictability serendipity

- Way of Thinking, very simplified: Logical, analytical leaders are processing information serially versus intuitive and creative ones perceiving things as a whole.
- Tolerance for Ambiguity, again simplified: some of us have a high need to structure information in order to minimize ambiguity, while others can process many ideas and thoughts simultaneously.
Analytical types have a better tolerance for ambiguity than the “traditional” directive decision-makers. An analytical type of leader usually search for more information and alternatives than directive ones.
7 more annotation(s)...
- Leaders applying the conceptual style in decision-making are often considering many alternatives out of broad perspective. Additionally they take a longer term perspective. This style gives most room for creativity, the authors claim.
- The forth style, behavioral style, is the most receptive for suggestions from others, peers and subordinates, and leaders of this style love the meetings! They are also trying to avoid conflicts and find a consensus.
- “We need to move forward boldly and make decisions despite incomplete information… but also be prepared to change our path. It’s easy to just shut down when faced with an environment in which you can never be certain or absorb all the information available. But if you are a leader, you need to accept the uncertainty and move forward anyway. “
- When both systems are active, there’s a room for intuition, interaction and emotions – and for better understanding and decision-making.
- When I saw the decision-style model I was right-away thinking about replacing the Tolerance of Ambiguity into the Level of Embracing Serendipity.
- The third association I got is the value and importance of listening in decision-making,
- I found the fifth one, his RASA model, beautiful and absolutely something every one of us should apply in our daily life and the decision-making situations. Acronym RASA comes from Receive, Appreciate, Summarise, Ask – and these four verbs should be part of our personal decision-making, learning processes, and leadership.

Jun

2011

Enabling Quantum Organizations as a new level of effectiveness

www.slideshare.net/...veness-keith-d-swenson-8269140

- Preview

unpredictability effect effectiveness quantum knowledgeworkers

Mar

2011

Intertwingled Work and Adaptive Case Management

" I'll will try to summarize one theme John develops that seems directly relevant to Intertwingled Work."

traction.tractionsoftware.com/traction

- Preview

adaptivecasemanagement work processes collaboration casemanagement judgment knowledgework unpredictability emergence

1) Adaptive Case Management is a data rather than process centric way of looking at how people deal with situations centered around a particular problem, issue, or case. It's intended to support people who need to make decisions that depend on complex and unpredictable circumstances associated with the case that require judgment and knowledge work rather than application of a deterministic process.
2) Observable work can be thought of as an object of Adaptive Case Management, focusing discovery, analysis, requests for advice or assistance and recording of outcomes on the work itself.
3 more annotation(s)...
- Because the process is emergent, you have to model the process using something that people can read, add to, and manipulate readily while they are doing other thing
- Jordan describes the difference between Social and Business Process reengineering as the difference between orchestrating a unique response to the circumstances of a case, versus a futile attempt to capture a response as a rigid business process.
- the key was her ability to figure out What, How and Why. Then she could explain the new process (loosely described as a set of interleaved intelligence communities) and how people could use the technology to do their jobs better."