Bertrand Duperrin's Library tagged uncertainty → View Popular, Search in Google

Jul

2011

Systems Intelligence, Serendipity and Listening for the Better Decisions

"I’ve earlier blogged about how I find intuition and seeing the value of the tacit knowledge as very interesting perspectives for the decision-making. As social business and new ways of working are now changing the organizations and the entire business landscape, and further adding to the complexity – I’ll find it even more interesting to study decision-making and how understanding is created."

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socialbusiness decisionmaking leadership uncertainty unpredictability serendipity

- Way of Thinking, very simplified: Logical, analytical leaders are processing information serially versus intuitive and creative ones perceiving things as a whole.
- Tolerance for Ambiguity, again simplified: some of us have a high need to structure information in order to minimize ambiguity, while others can process many ideas and thoughts simultaneously.
Analytical types have a better tolerance for ambiguity than the “traditional” directive decision-makers. An analytical type of leader usually search for more information and alternatives than directive ones.
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- Leaders applying the conceptual style in decision-making are often considering many alternatives out of broad perspective. Additionally they take a longer term perspective. This style gives most room for creativity, the authors claim.
- The forth style, behavioral style, is the most receptive for suggestions from others, peers and subordinates, and leaders of this style love the meetings! They are also trying to avoid conflicts and find a consensus.
- “We need to move forward boldly and make decisions despite incomplete information… but also be prepared to change our path. It’s easy to just shut down when faced with an environment in which you can never be certain or absorb all the information available. But if you are a leader, you need to accept the uncertainty and move forward anyway. “
- When both systems are active, there’s a room for intuition, interaction and emotions – and for better understanding and decision-making.
- When I saw the decision-style model I was right-away thinking about replacing the Tolerance of Ambiguity into the Level of Embracing Serendipity.
- The third association I got is the value and importance of listening in decision-making,
- I found the fifth one, his RASA model, beautiful and absolutely something every one of us should apply in our daily life and the decision-making situations. Acronym RASA comes from Receive, Appreciate, Summarise, Ask – and these four verbs should be part of our personal decision-making, learning processes, and leadership.

Nov

2008

Eloge de l'incertitude

La réalité, c'est que la crise n'est que l'écume des choses qui vient révéler l'immobilisme face à la nécessité de prendre acte que le monde change. Et le fait est que le monde change vite et va changer encore plus vite car, justement, les crises ont cette faculté de faire bouger, de révéler que le train est déjà parti du quai, en fait.

Mais affronter l'incertitude n'est pas qu'une conclusion au présent, c'est aussi une des dure leçon de la partie vraie de la crise. Si celle-ci s'est produite, c'est notamment parce que personne n'a réagit aux signes annonceurs. Pourquoi ? non pas qu'il n'y a eu aucun signe annonceur, simplement que ceux-ci n'étaient pas dans le tableau de bord ou que le signal qui y apparaissait n'était pas identifié.

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crisis management uncertainty weaksignals ideas culture strategy project