Colin Henderson's Bookmarks tagged → View Popular
You are here: Diigo Home > Colin Henderson's Bookmarks
FT.com / Markets - Insight: Survivor’s guide to navigation
First, how far will the balance shift from markets to governments? Industrial nations’ governments are getting more involved in modes of production, exchange and distribution – see the US, long committed to minimum state involvement. The drivers of more government involvement in markets are primarily non-commercial. Entry is dictated by a desire to offset market failures; and exit is often delayed by the lobbying of those favourably impacted by such interventions.
more fromwww.ft.com
Paul Krugman's fear for lost decade | Business | The Observer
As analysts and media hailed the tentative emergence of green shoots last week, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman caused international shock with a prediction that the world economy would stagnate just as badly, and for just as long, as Japan's did in the 1990s. In an exclusive interview, he talks to Will Hutton about his anxiety for the future - and how Gordon Brown might have saved Britain from the blight that hangs over the West
more fromwww.guardian.co.uk
Government debt: The good, the bad and the ugly | The Economist
THE government debt of the ten richest countries attending the G20 summits will hit 114% of GDP by 2014, up from 78% in 2007, according to a new IMF study. To measure how much fiscal pain would be required to bring gross debt ratios to a sustainable level, the IMF looked at demographic pressures and assumed that long-term interest rates exceed economic growth rates by a percentage point (the long-term pre-crisis average) and then calculated by how much primary budget balances would have to improve. The economists define this level as 60% or, for Japan, half of today’s figure (ie, 85%). Their results suggest that Ireland and Japan have most to do. Both would need to boost their primary balances by more than 12% of GDP, compared with what is forecast for 2014. Britain would need an improvement of close to 6%. The gap in America is 3.5% and in Germany just under 2%.
more fromwww.economist.com
Cash in on the war between inflation and deflation
Harvard professor Niall Ferguson has spoken of a “clash of the titans” between the competing forces of inflation and deflation — or Godzilla versus King Kong — and, on balance, thinks inflation is the bigger risk due to the “double danger of printing money and excessive \ deficits”.
Now the hedge fund advised by best-selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb is launching a fund that seeks to profit from the return of hyper-inflation.
Taleb’s 2007 book The Black Swan warned of the impact of highly improbable events on world markets. US hedge fund Universa, with which he is associated, is now launching the Black Swan Protection Protocol-Inflation fund.
more fromwww.timesonline.co.uk
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - How economists can misunderstand the crisis
On Wednesday last week, yields on 10-year US Treasuries – generally seen as the benchmark for long-term interest rates – rose above 3.73 per cent. Once upon a time that would have been considered rather low. But the financial crisis has changed all that: at the end of last year, the yield on the 10-year fell to 2.06 per cent. In other words, long-term rates have risen by 167 basis points in the space of five months. In relative terms, that represents an 81 per cent jump.
more fromwww.ft.com
Interest Rates
Grossly Misunderstood Debt
The often cited chart, by Bill Gross and others, reflecting a surge in Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP is distorted by a number of factors. One of the most significant reasons is that many families have substituted mortgage payments for rents and, without changing their costs, increased the debt ratio. Ironically, the shift built significant equity value. Further, when the long-term series is viewed on a standard logarithmic scale to show percentage gains over time, the chart becomes much less dramatic. On a real basis, adjusting for inflation, the rate of growth has been relatively constant over the past 50 years.
UPDATED THROUGH 2008
Bond Yields:
Reasonable Expectations
Is 4% on the 10-year Treasury bond high, low, or just about right? The Fed appears now--and may explicitly state soon--to be targeting inflation between 1% and 2%. By adding a 2% inflation-risk spread, 4% or lower may be just about right for the 20-year bond. As for the 10-year Treasury bond, we may soon see a yield that starts with a "3".
more fromwww.crestmontresearch.com
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Publications
IMF Publications
more fromwww.imf.org
FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - ‘Helicopter Ben’ confronts the challenge of a lifetime
Central banks may soon resort to their most powerful weapons against deflation: the printing press and the “helicopter drop” of money. It is a time for which Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has long prepared. Will this weaponry work? Unquestionably, yes: used ruthlessly, it will eliminate deflation. But returning to normality thereafter will prove far more elusive.
more fromwww.ft.com
Bubblegeneration Strategy Lab
But the game's up. That was yesterday. Not only can this trade not work in a world where the balance of market power is shifting to consumers - this trade never really worked at all.
No value was ever created. It was a shell game; a deception; a masquerade of value creation.
more fromwww.bubblegeneration.com
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » M&A surge on horizon for Europe
Classic | But FT Alphaville thinks at least some of the 160 CEOs and senior managers of publicly listed European companies surveyed by UBS are in a state of denial.
more fromftalphaville.ft.com
reportonbusiness.com: Low rates, high spending? It could just be a recipe for more economic woe
“Obama's a poker player,” Prof. Navarro said. “Here we've got a new president coming in who is basically going to bet the entire administration on a fiscal stimulus hand that is at best two jacks.”
more frombusiness.theglobeandmail.com
The dangers of Obama's public-works juggernaut | csmonitor.com
Like any economy, America's gross domestic product (GDP) is driven by four elements: consumption, business investment, exports, and government spending. The first three elements are in free fall. That leaves the government as the "spender of last resort."
more fromwww.csmonitor.com
FT.com / UK - Merkel criticises US over crisis | prescient call from Merkel
“Excessively cheap money in the US was a driver of today’s crisis,” she told the German parliament. “I am deeply concerned about whether we are now reinforcing this trend through measures being adopted in the US and elsewhere and whether we could find ourselves in five years facing the exact same crisis.”
more fromwww.ft.com
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Comment - America will find opportunity in scarcity
The potential for ingenuity and entrepreneurship remains high but, in recent years, it has not received the support needed. US federal spending on research and development – such as funding for the National Science Foundation – has fallen over the past eight years. This has been driven by the belief that seedcorn investment by government does not work. The fact that the internet, a big motor of prosperity and job creation, began as a government-funded research project seems to have been forgotten.
We now need to encourage investment in new high-technology industries such as clean energy and environmental technology. These are sectors where we have lacked political leadership not just recently but for decades. We need urgently to find alternatives to fossil fuels, invest in a smart electricity grid and make our cars, our homes and our offices more efficient. Rising unemployment should also force us to look to the environmental sector, where it is estimated that an extra 2m-3m well-paid, high-tech jobs could be created by 2030. These green jobs have the potential to create tremendous economic opportunities.
We will not, however be able to grasp these opportunities unless our children are equipped with the mathematics and science skills needed to compete in a global marketplace. We need, too, to close the digital divide. The US ranks only 15th in the world in broadband access, with 45m adults without it at home. The next president must make a top priority of building this 21st century infrastructure, much as president Dwight D. Eisenhower saw the interstate highway system as vital to the nation’s economic growth in the mid-20th century.
more fromwww.ft.com
George F. Colony: Why this tech recession will be different
1) Tech will be down, but not out. 2001-2003 was a tech depression. Spending stopped, projects were canceled, excess inventory flooded the market destroying pricing. Cisco lost half a trillion dollars of market cap. Why? Tech had a long way to fall. Tech spending in 2000 in the U.S. was up 12% -- there was fluff and fat everywhere. When the bubble burst, the fall was precipitous. But tech spending was up only 6% from 2006 to 2007. Users of technology are far more disciplined and have cut out the nonsense. So yes, growth will slow, but it won't fall off a cliff.
more fromblogs.forrester.com
More time than money | DavidCrow.ca
Nat Torkington has a great post, Effect of Depression on Technology, on the Radar Blog. The last recession or downturn or whatever friendly euphemism you’d
more fromdavidcrow.ca
Not a Great Depression, a Great Rebalancing - Umair Haque
The reason is that stagnation isn't a financial phenomenon, but an institutional one: it's a product of bad DNA. And so a resolution to the macro crisis demands nothing than less than new DNA across every segment and sector of the economy.
Let's reverse that insight to sharpen it. The striking thing about today's economy isn't that lame, soul-crushing industrial-era business is imploding into a black hole of economic nothingness. That was predictable. Rather, it's that while the so-called value created by, for example, investment banks, is proving to have been largely an illusion, revolutionaries bringing new DNA to the table are able to create authentic, durable, meaningful value.
By radically redefining how economic activities are organized and managed, a new generation of revolutionaries is rediscovering the long-lost art of real value creation. We've discussed many of them: Google, Threadless, Apple, and Zara, to name just a few.
more fromdiscussionleader.hbsp.com
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Comment - The world cannot grow its way out of this slowdown
more fromwww.ft.com
Notation: * = Private bookmark and comment|… = Clipping [?] | … = Public highlight [?]
Colin Henderson's Related Tags
See More Top Contributors
Related Groups on Diigo
-
央行2007年加息
raising interest rates
Items: 7 | Visits: 111
Created by: lei zhou
-
Illegal Immigration
America pays TRILLIONS of d...
Items: 7 | Visits: 169
Created by: liveinfreedom .
-
Global Opinions/Data
Opinions vary all over the ...
Items: 5 | Visits: 215
Created by: liveinfreedom .