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[Bloomberg] Thailand’s SET Index May Rise to 750, Kasikorn Says
[Thailand’s benchmark SET Index has gained 45 percent this year, set for its best annual performance since 2003 after a 48 percent slump last year.]
[Reuters] Fitch sees bad debt at Thai banks rising into next year
[The amount of bad debt at Thai commercial banks will swell to 10 percent of total lending by the end of this year, from 7-8 percent in the first half, due to the weak economy, Fitch Ratings said on Monday.
...
Fitch projected Thailand's economy would contract 3.1 percent this year and grow 3.0 percent in 2010, boosted by a recovery in exports.]
BP: Should also note that bank stocks are up significantly this year though based on expectations of the stimulus.
[Bangkok Post] Conflicts sap Australian sentiment in Thailand
[Continuing political confrontations and escalating violence in the southernmost provinces have dampened Thailand's investment climate and could jeopardise the government's attempts to revive the Thai economy, said the Australian-Thai Chamber of Commerce.
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Continuing political confrontations and escalating violence in the southernmost provinces have dampened Thailand's investment climate and could jeopardise the government's attempts to revive the Thai economy, said the Australian-Thai Chamber of Commerce.]
BP: Interesting that the Deep South plays a role
[Bloomberg] Thailand’s SET Target Raised at Kim Eng on Economy (Update2)
[Kim Eng raised its year-end target for the SET to 750 from 700, George Huebsch, Kim Eng’s head of research, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The measure yesterday climbed 1.3 percent to close at 653.20 and was little changed at 653.15 as of 12:10 p.m. in Bangkok.
“Thailand’s weathered the economic slowdown extremely well,” Huebsch said. “Earnings should improve further over the next several quarters with the economic recovery.” ]
BP: As article also notes, the SET has gone up significantly this year. If the SET continues to rise then for those in Thailand who have stocks will likely feel wealthy and start spending more (that is of course only paper wealth), but the effect will be to increase consumption.
[Bloomberg] Thai Recession Eases, Reducing Need for Lower Rates (Update2)
[Gross domestic product fell 4.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, after contracting 7.1 percent in the previous three months, the government said today. The median estimate of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 5.1 percent decline.
“Economic growth will be much stronger in the second half as all indicators have shown impressive improvement,” said Voravan Taraphum, managing director of BBL Asset Management Co., which oversees about 170 billion baht ($5 billion) of assets. “The export slump has eased as several manufacturers have boosted their production.” ]
[Reuters] Stubborn political crisis hangs over Thai economy
["It can be a source of concern ahead," said Euben Paracuelles, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "Our clients are starting to ask again about politics."
So far this year, the market toll from political unrest is minimal. The baht has gained 2.32 percent against the dollar, the second-best performer among Asian currencies after Indonesia's rupiah. The benchmark stock index is up 42.3 percent, turning around from a 47.6 percent fall last year.
Foreign investors, net sellers of Thai stocks in January and February, turned net buyers between March and July.
And in what some see as a vote of foreign confidence, Thailand received net foreign direct investment of $25.2 billion in three years to 2008, lower only than Singapore's $35.3 billion and far more than Indonesia's $6.5 billion and the Philippines' $3.5 billion, according to data compiled by HSBC.]
BP: Long, interesting article showing some mixed signals about the economy.
[Channel News Asia] Institute in Bangkok seeks non-conventional ways to tackle poverty
[Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is establishing the Yunus Centre at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok which will focus on non-conventional ways to tackle poverty.
In developing countries in Asia, 690 million people live off less than US$1 a day, and many earn their meagre living by subsistence farming. But the global economic crisis and volatile prices of staple foods have made it all the more difficult. Yet there is much that can be done.
Microcredit pioneer, Professor Yunus, who is also the founder of Grameen Foundation, maintains that targeted and sustainable assistance can be a vital key to lifting people out of poverty.]
[Reuters] Thailand to sell 50 bln baht more savings bonds-source
[The Bank of Thailand is expected to appoint commercial banks this week as underwriters for new savings bonds worth over 50 billion baht ($1.47 billion) to raise funds for refinancing shorter-maturity debt, a Finance Ministry source said on Monday. ]
[Business World Online] RP and Thailand agree to boost bilateral ties
[The Philippines and Thailand have agreed to strengthen bilateral ties, with leaders of both countries vowing to increase trade, investment and political cooperation.
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and visiting Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva made such commitments during a 40-minute bilateral meeting at Bahay Pangarap at the compound of the Presidential Security Group on Friday.
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Government data showed trade between the two countries amounted to about $5.78 billion from $5.16 billion in 2007.
Investments have also been robust, with Thai companies like PTT Thailand Group, Siam Cement Group, Dusit Thani Group, Bangkok Bank Ltd., TPI Philippines Vinyl, Thai Airways International, Charoen Pokphand Foods and Tiger Motors doing well in the Philippines.
Filipino companies operating in Thailand include Universal Robina Corp., San Miguel Corp., Liwayway Marketing Corp., and Top Blend International Co.]
[Bangkok Post] The Thai economy in the current crisis
[The key to solving an economic crisis is the same as the key to economic prosperity. It can be summarised in one word: Productivity.]
BP. Interesting opinion piece.
[Thailand Crisis] International arrivals at Suvarnabhumi Airport, chart : -22,9 % in june
[642 732, that’s a drop of 22,9 % compared to june 2008.
But it is better than may : 603 533, -26 %.]
BP: Thailand Crisis has a helpful chart as ever.
[Bloomberg] Thailand’s Industrial Output Falls for Eighth Months on Exports
[Thailand’s industrial production fell for an eighth month in June as the global recession slashed demand for automobiles and processed food. The magnitude of the drop was the smallest since November.
A measure of manufacturing production dropped 7.8 percent from a revised 9.8 percent decline a month earlier, Pichit Patrawimolpon, a Bank of Thailand director, said today in Bangkok. The median estimate of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 9.5 percent contraction.
“The Thai economy has hit the bottom,” said Kosit Panpiemras, executive chairman at Bangkok Bank Pcl, the nation’s largest lender. “But it will take time for us to return to growth. Global trade remains very weak and that will hurt export-dependent economies like ours.”]
BP: Some great stats in the article.
[Bangkok Post] Q2 GDP likely to fall 5-6%
[The economy in the second quarter of this year is expected to contract five to six per cent but the fourth quarter should turn out positive, according to the Finance Ministry's latest forecast.]
BP: One can hope that the fourth quarter will turn out positive, but all forecasts so far up until now have been rosier than reality so one cannot be confident of positive growth in the fourth quarter.
[Bangkok Post] Expected Drop in Tourism Numbers
[The expected number of tourist arrivals had been reduced from the expected 14.1 million to 11, he said.
The A(H1N1) flu outbreak could make tourism contract by three to four per cent, causing the country to lose up to 200 billion baht of tourism revenue this year, he said.
Last year, Thailand gained 540 billion baht in tourism revenue.
...
However, he said Thai tourists would help generate an estimated 430 billion baht in revenue this year].
BP: Huge drop, but not unexpected.
[Bangkok Post]: SHOW US THE MONEY, MR PRIME MINISTER
[But for people in Buri Ram, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
A kamnan said people do not hate Mr Abhisit but do not adore him the same way they did Thaksin.
Instead, they wanted to see Mr Abhisit show leadership and take immediate action.
"When Thaksin came, his promises were fulfilled just a week after. People saw progress, and money," he said.
"Villagers have no idea when the promised package will come and whether it will help them. Local politicians and their cronies with business connections may simply reap profits from the schemes."
Thonglor Chewroenram, a 66-year-old farmer, still lauds Thaksin.
"Thaksin was the first who cared and did something about our hardship. But we haven't seen this government doing much," he said.
Still, Mr Thonglor has not ruled out a chance for Mr Abhisit to be another idol for him.
"I will wait and see if he can be equal or better than Thaksin," he said.]
BP: Some interesting stats on the Buri Ram economy too.
[Thailand Politics]: Thai Economy: May 2009
[The BOT has released its charts and economic summary for the month of May 2009. I'm hesitant to make sweeping generalizations without knowing the seasonal trends and other variables that can greatly affect demand in particular sectors. That being said, the only "green shoot" I can see from a cursory glance at the charts and data is the slight improvement in the electronics sector, a key sector in Thailand's export dependent economy.]
BP: Links to the charts and economy summary available in the above link. Note particularly, as the poster notes, the fall of prices in the agricultural sector and think of the political impact of this.
[SWJ] Siam Cement Wins Thailand's Top Title in The Wall Street Journal Asia's Asia 200 Survey - WSJ.com
[It's been a tough year for Siam Cement PCL, one of Southeast Asia's oldest and biggest industrial conglomerates. But that hasn't kept it from maintaining its status as one of Thailand's most-respected companies.]
BP: A list of top ten admired firms.
[Bloomberg] Thai Thaksin Supporters Plan Largest Rally Since April Riots
[Thailand’s political turmoil has weighed on the benchmark SET index, which is trading at 11 times estimated earnings for this year, the second-lowest in Asia after Pakistan. The index, up 35 percent so far this year, remains 24 percent below its level a year ago.
“Political chaos has forced overseas investors to discount our market,” said Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, managing director of Tisco Securities Co. “We expect the Thai market to be this cheap as long as political instability remains.”]
BP: So where will the market go now?
[Asia Times] Crispin Interviews Korn
Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij says he was raised as a mandarin but that his economic policies are all for the people. The former JP Morgan investment banker designed and this week partially passed through the senate what promises to be the largest fiscal push in Thailand's modern history
BP: Interesting article which hope time permitting to cover next week.
[MCOT] Thailand, China agree to push for closer trade and tourism ties
" Visiting Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Wednesday said Thailand and China would strengthen bilateral economic and trade partnership and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao affirmed he would encourage more Chinese to visit Thailand.
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Tourist arrivals to Thailand totalled some 3.2 million in the first quarter of 2009, down 19 percent compared to the corresponding period last year, according to Tourism Authority of Thailand."
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