Bull markets end when a generation stops spending
and stops being more productive as worke
2Expand
Wired 7.09: Prophets of Boom
Tags: economy, predictions, wired, kevin-kelly, economic-crash on 2008-10-11 -All Annotations (2) -About
more fromwww.wired.com
-
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Our growth boom will end around
2008 or 2009, as the boomer generation begins to cut its spending. We'll
see falling prices, high unemployment, and massive consolidation in industry.
This depressionary economy will last for about 12 to 14 years, from
approximately
2009 to 2022.
1Expand
I’m So Totally, Digitally Close to You - Clive Thompson - NYTimes.com
Tags: cyber-culture, social-network, facebook, ambient-awareness on 2008-10-05 -All Annotations (1) -About
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Social scientists have a name for this sort of incessant online contact. They call it “ambient awareness.” It is, they say, very much like being physically near someone and picking up on his mood through the little things he does — body language, sighs, stray comments — out of the corner of your eye.
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better_than_free - Kevin Kelly -- The Technium
Tags: economics, free-economy, kevin-kelly, technology, network-economy on 2008-09-24 and saved by47 people -All Annotations (13) -About
more fromwww.kk.org
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how does one make money selling free copies?
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When copies are super abundant, they become worthless.
When copies are super abundant, stuff which can't be copied becomes scarce and valuable. -
When copies are free, you need to sell things which can not be copied.
-
In a real sense, these are eight things that are better than free. Eight uncopyable values. I call them "generatives." A generative value is a quality or attribute that must be generated, grown, cultivated, nurtured. A generative thing can not be copied, cloned, faked, replicated, counterfeited, or reproduced. It is generated uniquely, in place, over time. In the digital arena, generative qualities add value to free copies, and therefore are something that can be sold.
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Eight Generatives Better Than Free
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Immediacy -- Sooner or later you can find a free copy of whatever you want, but getting a copy delivered to your inbox the moment it is released -- or even better, produced -- by its creators is a generative asset.
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Personalization
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Interpretation -- As the old joke goes: software, free. The manual, $10,000.
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Authenticity -- You might be able to grab a key software application for free, but even if you don't need a manual, you might like to be sure it is bug free, reliable, and warranted. You'll pay for authenticity.
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Patronage -- It is my belief that audiences WANT to pay creators. Fans like to reward artists, musicians, authors and the like with the tokens of their appreciation, because it allows them to connect. But they will only pay if it is very easy to do, a reasonable amount, and they feel certain the money will directly benefit the creators.
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Findability
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A zero price does not help direct attention to a work, and in fact may sometimes hinder it. But no matter what its price, a work has no value unless it is seen;
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Rather, these new eight generatives demand an understanding of how abundance breeds a sharing mindset, how generosity is a business model, how vital it has become to cultivate and nurture qualities that can't be replicated with a click of the mouse.
2Expand
Annals of Innovation: In the Air: Reporting & Essays: The New Yorker
Tags: innovation, science, technology, gladwell, thinkers on 2008-09-24 and saved by11 people -All Annotations (2) -About
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This phenomenon of simultaneous discovery—what science historians call “multiples”—turns out to be extremely common.
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Good ideas are out there for anyone with the wit and the will to find them,
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Edge: TURING'S CATHEDRAL by George Dyson
Tags: google, artificial-intelligence, technology, edge, computing on 2008-09-24 and saved by15 people -All Annotations (9) -About
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Whether
we're talking about John Cage's idea of "the mind we all share"
or H.G. Well's "World Brain", Google has its act together
and are at the precipice of astonishing changes in human communication...and
ultimately, in our sense of who or what we are. -
Still, others believe there are reasons for legitimate
fear of a (very near) future world in which the world's knowledge is
privatized by one corporation. This could be a problem, a very big problem. -
TURING'S
CATHEDRAL [10.24.05]
A visit to Google on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of
John von Neumann's proposal for a digital computer
by George Dyson -
As organisms,
we possess two outstanding repositories of information: the information
conveyed by our genes, and the information stored in our brains. -
it will
inevitably be colonized by codes that will start doing things
with the results. -
We can
divide the computational universe into three sectors: computable problems;
non-computable problems (that can be given a finite, exact description
but have no effective procedure to deliver a definite result); and,
finally, questions whose answers are, in principle, computable, but
that, in practice, we are unable to ask in unambiguous language that
computers can understand. -
"An argument
in favor of building a machine with initial randomness is that, if it
is large enough, it will contain every network that will ever be required,"
advised Turing's former assistant and cryptanalyst Irving J. Good, speaking
at IBM in 1958. -
A network, whether of neurons, computers, words, or
ideas, contains solutions, waiting to be discovered, to problems that
need not be explicitly defined. It is much easier to find explicit answers
than to ask explicit questions. And some will be answers to questions
that programmers will never have to ask. -
I found myself recollecting the words of Alan
Turing, in his seminal paper Computing Machinery and Intelligence,
a founding document in the quest for true AI. "In attempting to construct
such machines we should not be irreverently usurping His power of creating
souls, any more than we are in the procreation of children," Turing
had advised. "Rather we are, in either case, instruments of His will
providing mansions for the souls that He creates."
10Expand
Is Google Making Us Stupid?
Tags: google, technology, internet, articles, nicholas-carr on 2008-09-23 and saved by196 people -All Annotations (91) -About
more fromwww.theatlantic.com
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we may well be reading more today than we did in the 1970s or 1980s, when television was our medium of choice.
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Experiments demonstrate that readers of ideograms, such as the Chinese, develop a mental circuitry for reading that is very different from the circuitry found in those of us whose written language employs an alphabet.
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We can expect as well that the circuits woven by our use of the Net will be different from those woven by our reading of books and other printed works.
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As we use what the sociologist Daniel Bell has called our “intellectual technologies”—the tools that extend our mental rather than our physical capacities—we inevitably begin to take on the qualities of those technologies.
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When the Net absorbs a medium, that medium is re-created in the Net’s image.
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Google, says its chief executive, Eric Schmidt, is “a company that’s founded around the science of measurement,” and it is striving to “systematize everything” it does.
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Still, their easy assumption that we’d all “be better off” if our brains were supplemented, or even replaced, by an artificial intelligence is unsettling. It suggests a belief that intelligence is the output of a mechanical process, a series of discrete steps that can be isolated, measured, and optimized.
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Maybe I’m just a worrywart. Just as there’s a tendency to glorify technological progress, there’s a countertendency to expect the worst of every new tool or machine.
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Just as there’s a tendency to glorify technological progress, there’s a countertendency to expect the worst of every new tool or machine.
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So, yes, you should be skeptical of my skepticism.
1Expand
Kombucha.org, probiotic health tea, information and products
Tags: health, tea, information, vegan on 2008-09-07 -All Annotations (1) -About
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if you are making your own
Kombucha Tea, we strongly recommend: Use of stainless steel (2nd choice
glass) pots, (for brewing tea), large wide mouth glass jars (for
fermenting), and wooden or plastic utensils. You must avoid contact
with
metal containers/objects, in regards to care/storage of fermented tea
and the cultures themselves.
2Expand
Neuro-linguistic programming - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tags: nlp, growth, communication on 2008-06-19 and saved by7 people -All Annotations (0) -About
more fromen.wikipedia.org
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You need only three things to be an absolutely exquisite communicator. We have found that there are three major patterns in the behavior of every therapeutic wizard we've talked to — and executives, and salespeople. The first one is to know what outcome you want. The second is that you need flexibility in your behavior. You need to be able to generate lots and lots of different behaviors to find out what responses you get. The third is you need to have enough sensory experience to notice when you get the responses that you want [...] (Bandler and Grinder, 1979)
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Choice is better than no choice. An idea from cybernetics that holds the most flexible element in a system will have the most influence or choice in that system
1Expand
Human Potential Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tags: growth, personal-development on 2008-06-19 -All Annotations (0) -About
more fromen.wikipedia.org
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The Human Potential Movement (HPM) arose out of the social and intellectual milieu of the 1960s and formed around the concept of cultivating extraordinary potential that its advocates believed to lie largely untapped in most people. The movement took as its premise the belief that through the development of "human potential", humans can experience an exceptional quality of life filled with happiness, creativity, and fulfillment. As a corollary, those who begin to unleash this assumed potential often find themselves directing their actions within society towards assisting others to release their potential. Adherents believe that the net effect of individuals cultivating their potential will bring about positive social change at large.
1Expand
iTunes + mac formatted ipod + xplay - iPod - iPhone - iTunes Forums at iLounge
kill ituneshelper.exe in order for windows to recognize mac-formatted ipod
Tags: ipod, xplay, itunes, bug-fix on 2008-04-07 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Thought I would metion that I found when iTunes Helper is running it prevents iTunes from seeing my mac formatted ipod (I'm using xplay). Once I killed iTunes Helper all synced well once again.
6Expand
Search Engines as Leeches on the Web (Jakob Nielsen's Alertbox)
Tags: search, usability, web-marketing on 2008-04-01 and saved by8 people -All Annotations (0) -About
more fromwww.useit.com
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Summary:
Search engines extract too much of the Web's value, leaving too little for the websites that actually create the content. Liberation from search dependency is a strategic imperative for both websites and software vendors. -
How can websites devote more of their budgets to keeping customers, rather than simply advertising for new visitors? Here are some ideas
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The question is: How can websites devote more of their budgets to keeping customers, rather than simply advertising for new visitors?
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Email newsletters. Getting people to sign up for regular newsletters remains the ultimate way to maintain a relationship.
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Request marketing. Have users tell you what they want, and then alert them when you have it.
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The real goal is to make users come back, and to have them come directly to your site instead of clicking on expensive ads.
1Expand
Kevin Kelly -- The Technium
Tags: kevin-kelly, wikipedia on 2008-03-13 and saved by3 people -All Annotations (0) -About
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I hate to say it but there is a new type of communism or socialism loose in the world, although neither of these outdated and tinged terms can accurately capture what is new about it.
17Expand
Edge 235
BETTER THAN FREE
By Kevin Kelly
Tags: internet, kevin-kelly, network-economy on 2008-03-10 and saved by3 people -All Annotations (0) -About
more fromwww.edge.org
-
Our wealth sits upon
a very large device that copies promiscuously and constantly. -
In a
real sense, these are eight things that are better than free. Eight
uncopyable values. I call them "generatives." A generative
value is a quality or attribute that must be generated, grown, cultivated,
nurtured. A generative thing can not be copied, cloned, faked, replicated,
counterfeited, or reproduced. It is generated uniquely, in place,
over time. In the digital arena, generative qualities add value to
free copies, and therefore are something that can be sold. -
Immediacy — Sooner or later you can find a free copy of whatever
you want, but getting a copy delivered to your inbox the moment it
is released — or even better, produced — by its creators is a generative
asset. -
Personalization
-
As many
have noted, personalization requires an ongoing conversation between
the creator and consumer, artist and fan, producer and user. It is
deeply generative because it is iterative and time consuming. -
Interpretation — As the old joke goes: software, free. The manual,
$10,000. -
Authenticity — You might be able to grab a key software application
for free, but even if you don't need a manual, you might like to
be sure it is bug free, reliable, and warranted. You'll pay for authenticity. -
Accessibility
— Ownership often sucks. You have to keep your things tidy, up-to-date,
and in the case of digital material, backed up. And in this mobile
world, you have to carry it along with you. Many people, me included,
will be happy to have others tend our "possessions" by
subscribing to them. -
The fact that most of this material will
be available free, if we want to tend it, back it up, keep adding
to it, and organize it, will be less and less appealing as time goes
on. -
Embodiment — At its core the digital copy is without a body. You
can take a free copy of a work and throw it on a screen. But perhaps
you'd like to see it in hi-res on a huge screen? Maybe in 3D? -
Patronage — It is my belief that audiences WANT to pay creators.
Fans like to reward artists, musicians, authors and the like with
the tokens of their appreciation, because it allows them to connect.
But they will only pay if it is very easy to do, a reasonable amount,
and they feel certain the money will directly benefit the creators. -
Findability — Where as the previous generative qualities reside
within creative digital works, findability is an asset that occurs
at a higher level in the aggregate of many works. A zero price does
not help direct attention to a work, and in fact may sometimes hinder
it. But no matter what its price, a work has no value unless it is
seen; unfound masterpieces are worthless. When there are millions
of books, millions of songs, millions of films, millions of applications,
millions of everything requesting our attention — and most of it
free — being found is valuable. -
From an ocean of possibilities the PSL find, nurture and refine the
work of creators that they believe fans will connect with. -
Rather, these new eight
generatives demand an understanding of how abundance breeds a sharing
mindset, how generosity is a business model, how vital it has become
to cultivate and nurture qualities that can't be replicated with
a click of the mouse. -
In short, the money in this networked economy does not follow the
path of the copies. Rather it follows the path of attention, and
attention has its own circuits. -
I think ads are only one of the paths that
attention takes, and in the long-run, they will only be part of the
new ways money is made selling the free. -
Maintaining generatives is a lot harder than duplicating copies
in a factory. There is still a lot to learn. A lot to figure out.
Write to me if you do.
2Expand
Nicholas Carr: Feel free to call my blog a parasite | Technology | The Guardian
Tags: blogging, blogosphere, echo-chamber, nicholas-carr on 2008-01-03 -All Annotations (0) -About
more fromwww.guardian.co.uk
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I used to think of blogging's reactive nature as a flaw in the medium. I've changed my mind, though. I've come to believe that being a literary parasite is no bad thing. I'd argue, in fact, that parasitism is blogging's most distinctive and probably its most valuable feature.
Bloggers blog for a host of reasons, but what sets blogging apart as a literary form is that it offers a writer an easy way to document his or her responses to their day-to-day reading.
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Blogs, after all, began as logs, chronological catalogues of what web surfers discovered in their daily perambulations around the internet. Many of the most accomplished and venerable bloggers continue to write in this form.
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Secret Websites, Coded Messages: The New World of Immersive Games
Tags: alternate-reality-games, arg, computer-games, cyber-culture, guerilla-marketing, immersive-games, nine-inch-nails on 2008-01-01 and saved by16 people -All Annotations (0) -About
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"Games are about engaging with the most entertaining thing on the planet," he says, sipping coffee in his guesthouse, "which is other people."
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"When done well, ARGs can be extraordinarily effective," says Ty Montague, creative director of the J. Walter Thompson ad agency. That's because the games offer marketers a solution to a growing problem: how to reach people who are so media-saturated they block all attempts to get through. "Your brain filters it out, because otherwise you'd go crazy," Weisman says. That's why he opted for a "subdural" approach: Instead of shouting the message, hide it. "I figured that if the audience discovered something, they would share it," he explains, "because we all need something to talk about."
-
During the development of that first ARG, Weisman argued that no puzzle would be too hard, no clue too obscure, because with so many people collaborating online, the players would have access to every conceivable skill set. Where he erred was in not following that idea to its logical conclusion. "Not only do they have every skill on the planet," he says, "they have unlimited resources, unlimited time, and unlimited money. Not only can they solve anything, they can solve anything instantly."
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From 42's perspective, it hardly matters whether you call the game "marketing" or not. What matters is that someone — Reznor, Microsoft, Disney — writes a check. And, for now, the checks generally come from companies trying to sell something. As a result, many ARG developers want to break out of marketing entirely and find another way to make money.
1Expand
evdothailand.com
Tags: evdo, mobile, thailand, wireless on 2007-12-30 -All Annotations (0) -About
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The 3G Mobile Router (DIR-450) enables users to quickly create a secure wireless 802.11g network and provide access to the Internet using an EV-DO cellular signal. Simply connect a 1xEV-DO Internet PC card to access the Internet (third party EV-DO subscription and available signal required). The DIR-450 is ideal for accessing private networks away from the office or connecting users to the Internet to check e-mail and surf the web while on the road. You can also use this router where a cable or DSL Internet connection is not available.
4Expand
Google in 2008
Tags: google, google-gears, offline-browsing, predictions, trends on 2007-12-29 and saved by2 people -All Annotations (0) -About
more fromblogoscoped.com
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Google Gears
Google Gears is an installation which extends the browser to allow web applications to provide offline functionality. Such as Google Reader letting you download some posts to then continue reading them even when you’re offline (I suppose some of the younger ones among us will have to look up that word in the dictionary!). Right now, Google Gears – an open source project which Google may be hoping will gain traction in the overall market as it may be neat Trojan horse to bring more power to web apps (last not least Google’s web apps) – is still missing for such services as Gmail or Google Docs. Maybe in 2008, we’ll be seeing it rolled out to those as well?
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This onebox prototype points to what may become one of the key conflicts in search results in 2008; results integrity vs results cross-integration. Integrity as in: showing mostly neutral results, doing things in organic ways, separating ads from real results, and so on. And cross-integration as in: showing Google-favoring special results such as tips or “promotions,” showing Google Checkout buttons on some ads, showing YouTube results in different formatting, framing pages instead of directly linking to them and so on.
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The end result of this phenomenon? Well, progress in all the sub-optimal Google products may stagnate even as that sub-optimal Google product is able to grow its user base anyway... the drawback of monopolies.
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There’s another noteworthy side-effect: every service hosted at *.google.com also has the power to add a security vulnerability that can impact the general Google Account, or parts thereof. And this may be the biggest risk for Google in 2008 and other years ahead: a big privacy/ security scandal. “Big” as in e.g.: “a hole exposed the emails of everyone.” (Imagine other people going through the emails of a celebrity, say, Larry Page.) This could shake the trust people have in the web apps model more than anything else; a giant win for every desktop application provider (like Microsoft) and a huge loss for every web apps provider (like Google).
2Expand
Entangling the Web - New York Times
Tags: net-neutrality, nytimes, regulatory-capture, tim-berners-lee on 2007-12-28 -All Annotations (0) -About
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Last fall, the chief executive of AT&T, Ed Whitacre, argued that Internet giants like Google and Microsoft should begin paying for access to his “pipes”— never mind that consumers already pay AT&T for the bandwidth they use to gain access to these services. If broadband providers like AT&T were to begin blocking or degrading the content and services of companies that didn’t pay up, both consumers and the Internet would suffer.
-
Timothy B. Lee is a policy analyst at the Show-Me Institute, a nonpartisan research organization.
3Expand
Why Cant We Compute in the Cloud? Part 2 - Bits - Technology - New York Times Blog
Tags: cloud-computing, innovation, network-computing, trends on 2007-12-28 -All Annotations (0) -About
more frombits.blogs.nytimes.com
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What I discovered was that - with the caveat of a necessary network connection - life is just fine without a disk. Between the Firefox Web browser, Google’s
Gmail and and the search engine company’s Docs Web-based word processor, it was possible to carry on quite nicely without local data during my trip. -
he only things I was missing were the passwords to online databases
-
A crippled user device like the one you’re talking about might be convenient today, but in five years, for not much more money, you could be holding a super-computer in your hand. You want to give that up because your hard drive crashed?
— Posted by MoJo
Notation: * = Private bookmark and comment|… = Clipping [?] | … = Public highlight [?]
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