Colin Henderson's Library tagged niall →  View Popular

www.foreignpolicy.com/...dead_men_walking - Preview

men walking dead niall economy

THE government debt of the ten richest countries attending the G20 summits will hit 114% of GDP by 2014, up from 78% in 2007, according to a new IMF study. To measure how much fiscal pain would be required to bring gross debt ratios to a sustainable level, the IMF looked at demographic pressures and assumed that long-term interest rates exceed economic growth rates by a percentage point (the long-term pre-crisis average) and then calculated by how much primary budget balances would have to improve. The economists define this level as 60% or, for Japan, half of today’s figure (ie, 85%). Their results suggest that Ireland and Japan have most to do. Both would need to boost their primary balances by more than 12% of GDP, compared with what is forecast for 2014. Britain would need an improvement of close to 6%. The gap in America is 3.5% and in Germany just under 2%.

www.economist.com/...displaystory.cfm - Preview

stimulus keynes government debt world economy niall

History lesson for economists in thrall to Keynes

By Niall Ferguson

www.investorsinsight.com/...mists-in-thrall-to-keynes.aspx - Preview

investorsinsight niall Niall Ferguson

Harvard professor Niall Ferguson has spoken of a “clash of the titans” between the competing forces of inflation and deflation — or Godzilla versus King Kong — and, on balance, thinks inflation is the bigger risk due to the “double danger of printing money and excessive \ deficits”.

Now the hedge fund advised by best-selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb is launching a fund that seeks to profit from the return of hyper-inflation.

Taleb’s 2007 book The Black Swan warned of the impact of highly improbable events on world markets. US hedge fund Universa, with which he is associated, is now launching the Black Swan Protection Protocol-Inflation fund.

www.timesonline.co.uk/...article6445366.ece - Preview

deflation inflation economy niall

Chaos theory proposes that, by merely flapping its wings in the Amazonian jungle, a single butterfly can cause a hurricane in the Home Counties. That is because of the extraordinary complexity of the global climatic system: one tiny bit of turbulence in darkest Brazil can, under the right circumstances, trigger a kind of meteorological chain reaction, the ultimate effect of which is out of all proportion to the initial cause.

www.telegraph.co.uk/...untries-but-one-Chimerica.html - Preview

chimerica niall

Shortly before the anniversary of the great Western credit crunch, I paid a visit to its antithesis: the great Eastern savings splurge. Nowhere better embodies the breakneck economic expansion of China than the city of Chongqing. Far up the River Yangtze, it is the fastest growing city in the world today. I had seen some spectacular feats of construction in previous visits to China, but this put even Shanghai and Shenzhen into the shade. There was something truly awe-inspiring about the countless tower blocks under construction, the innumerable cranes perched on the city’s hills, the gleaming new highways, the brand-new enterprise zones, the ubiquitous smog. I felt I was witnessing an industrial revolution several orders of magnitude larger than the Industrial Revolution that once filled the cities of the West – of the British Isles and North America – with similar noxious fumes.

blogs.law.harvard.edu/...the-end-of-chimerica - Preview

chimerica niall

On Wednesday last week, yields on 10-year US Treasuries – generally seen as the benchmark for long-term interest rates – rose above 3.73 per cent. Once upon a time that would have been considered rather low. But the financial crisis has changed all that: at the end of last year, the yield on the 10-year fell to 2.06 per cent. In other words, long-term rates have risen by 167 basis points in the space of five months. In relative terms, that represents an 81 per cent jump.

www.ft.com/...7c-11de-a6c5-00144feabdc0.html - Preview

ft.com niall ferguson krugman economy inflation

Governments cling to the delusion that a crisis of excess debt can be solved by creating more debt.

www.latimes.com/...rg6-2009feb06,0,6972232.column - Preview

keynes niall crisis