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08 Aug 08
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Comment - The crisis: a tale of two monetary policies
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The power of Europe’s unions, its history of hyperinflation and the need to develop credibility for a young institution all justify the ECB’s tough stance. Because the Fed does not have these problems but faces a potentially serious recession, it is prepared to gamble that the weakness in US employment and the general decline in economic activity will prevent a wage-price spiral without further increases in the interest rate. If food and energy prices remain at today’s level and wage costs do not accelerate, the overall consumer price index inflation will decline by next year to an annual rate of less than 3 per cent. I think the Fed’s current interest rate strategy makes sense but would be too risky for the ECB.
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