Fritz Reinhart's Profile

These questions themselves indicate the limited long-term significance of the Soviet collapse of two decades ago. By comparison, the events of 10 years earlier—in 1979—surely have a better claim to being truly historic. Just think what was happening in the world 30 years ago. The Soviets began their policy of self-destruction by invading Afghanistan. The British started the revival of free-market economics in the West by electing Margaret Thatcher. Deng Xiaoping set China on a new economic course by visiting the United States and seeing for himself what the free market can achieve. And, of course, the Iranians ushered in the new era of clashing civilizations by overthrowing the shah and proclaiming an Islamic Republic.

In short, 1989 was less of a watershed year than 1979. The reverberations of the fall of the Berlin Wall turned out to be much smaller than we had expected at the time. In essence, what happened was that we belatedly saw through the gigantic fraud of Soviet superpower. But the real trends of our time—the rise of China, the radicalization of Islam, and the rise and fall of market fundamentalism—had already been launched a decade earlier. Thirty years on, we are still being swept along by the historic waves of 1979. The Berlin Wall is only one of many relics of the Cold War to have been submerged by them.

Meine Kollegin Gabriele Bärtels schrieb nach vielen frustrierenden Berufserlebnissen im Sommer eine kleine Kolumne, die mit dem schönen Satz begann: "Die Pressefreiheit ist konstituierend für die Demokratie, aber nachts steht sie im dünnen Kleidchen an einer Laterne und zwinkert den Anzeigenkunden zu."

Phase drei folgt, die Wachstumsphase. Wachstum verzeichnet vor allem die Realwirtschaft, die Gewinne der Unternehmen steigen.

Eine solche Phase kann lange anhalten, im Schnitt 33 Monate; die Aktienkurse fielen in der Vergangenheit rund neun Prozent zurück.

Die Marktstrategen von Goldman Sachs haben analysiert, wie sich die Börsen in den vergangenen gut drei Jahrzehnten entwickelt haben

Goldman unterteilt die Entwicklung an den Börsen in vier Phasen, die dem Auf und Ab der Konjunktur in der Regel vorauslaufen.