george napper's Profile

Ahmadinejad's three challengers are all members of the Islamic revolution's old guard who remain strongly committed to the goals of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's radical brand of Shia Islamism. The outcome of the election will affect Iran's domestic policies but are likely to have much less impact on Iran's foreign policy, which is controlled by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Even if Ahmadinejad is defeated, his successor is likely to change the tone--but not the substance--of Iran's hostile foreign policy. All of Ahmadinejad's challengers have indicated that they support Iran's nuclear ambitions, but would pursue them in a less confrontational manner.

A key metric will be the voter turnout percentage, which is likely to reflect a growing alienation of many Iranians who are shut out of their repressive political system. 

Iran's elections last Friday and their dramatic aftermath provided the Obama Administration a unique opportunity to put into action key elements of the government's public diplomacy strategy. Unfortunately, as President Obama has carefully positioned himself on the fence between the alleged winner, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the candidate supported by Iran's hundreds of thousands of protestors, Hossein Mousavi, the message from the U.S. government has been muted.

he Internet is not, of course, the only means through which the U.S. government can reach out to foreign populations such as that of Iran. However, the record is spotty on other fronts as well. On the plus side, Radio Free Europe is doing yeoman's work broadcasting 24 hours a day into Iran in Farsi through its service surrogate Radio Farda, providing critical information from the outside world for embattled Iranians listening on short wave radio. Operating as a surrogate service, Radio Farda provides a platform for Iranian exile journalists to broadcast back into their country with otherwise censored information.

Gates was linked to secret arms sales in the early 1980s to both Iraq and Iran as the two countries fought an eight-year war. However, because Gates had influential friends among Democrats -- the likes of Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman David Boren -- as well as Republican allies, investigations into Gates's roles in the Iran-Contra and Iraqgate scandals faltered. [For details, see Consortiumnews.com's "The Secret World of Robert Gates."]

ates may have been singularly responsible for the CIA's failure to detect the collapse of the Soviet Empire from 1989 to 1991. For the prior decade, he was the most senior CIA analyst exaggerating threats that justified massive U.S. military build-ups as well as support for violent guerrilla groups.

So, Obama's much-hailed political strategy of building a "Team of Rivals" is revealing its dark underbelly: Powerful rivals can maneuver you into a corner that ultimately undermines your goals and promotes their own

The time for making those personnel decisions was really a year ago, before the inauguration. To clean house now -- less than a year into his presidency -- would prompt serious questions about Obama's executive judgmen