Danny Liu's Profile

普遍来说，我都是「先进场、再评估」。我总是在寻找趋势的破绽，赶在趋势转变之前先找到问题，并提早转变做法，因此能够很安心的持有手中的股票。反过来说，有时候我们发觉原先的论点已经错得离谱，也会尽快退场，先出场再说。

在不确定的年代，你需要有批判思考力，并且诚实的认错。

一旦把危机摊在阳光下、讲出来，问题就解决了。

进场后，我会比较实际情况和论点之间的差异，进一步检验原先的假设。这其中牵涉到直觉，但我还是有一套理论架构的。

Anticipation is what makes us move forward

如果你使用杠杆，记得要跑得快一点，否则不要用。如果你不使用杠杆，你投资时所面临的时间轴，可以拉长一点，但如果你使用杠杆，必须要注意短期风险。做为一个审慎、甘冒投资风险的人，最需要的就是纪律

但是既然我这么批判，同时也很容易释怀（forgiving）。如果我不懂得谅解自己，就没办法认错。一旦我们都能够体会，「不完美的理解」是人类既存的限制，犯错也就没什么好丢脸的，只有无法改正错误才是羞耻。把认错当成骄傲的来源，才能保住自我

次级房贷危机只是扳机，让超级泡沫走向破灭。

比较好的指标是美国房价，观察房价是否稳定下来，那是一个很好的观察指标。

超级泡沫结合了三个趋势，每一个趋势都有其缺失。第一个是信用不断扩张的长期趋势，第二个是金融市场的全球化，第三个是金融创新加速。

Adaptation is what makes us change course

simple mental model does not necessarily mean technically simplistic software.

but this technical complexity should be hidden from users.

In the real life people often have different facets that they share with different persons whereas on friend-networks such as FriendFeed, it is impossible to choose one facet of a person.

it is possible to introduce more complexity at the mental model level provided that users are already well familiar with the application and are “confident in their shared understanding”. Hence, it can only be done at later stages of the software existence, in the way Facebook did it, progressively adding complexity after it has already reached a certain weight.

Nielsen stresses that having a simple idea that obeys Shirky’s law is necessary but not enough for building successful software. One can have a great idea but still fail to execute. Besides considering a number of purely technical and business issues, one should constantly make sure that the match between the software and the user model is maintained all along the development process in spite of probable flaws in developers’ perception of the user model. This is why Michael Nielsen asserts the importance of building early enough a base of beta users and releasing early and often.