Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win?

Abstract: Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow
a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed.
We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams
is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment
(match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final
score, it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability
that it was or was not the case that 'the best team won'. For typical scores,
the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of
the game to increase the typical number of goals scored would improve the
situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as
satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game was
radically changed.

Past performance, peer review, and project selection: A case study in the social and behavioral sciences

Abstract: Does past performance influence success in grant applications? In this study
we test whether the grant allocation decisions of the Netherlands Research
Council for the Economic and Social Sciences correlate with the past
performances of the applicants in terms of publications and citations, and with
the results of the peer review process organized by the Council. We show that
the Council is successful in distinguishing grant applicants with above-average
performance from those with below-average performance, but within the former
group no correlation could be found between past performance and receiving a
grant. When comparing the best performing researchers who were denied funding
with the group of researchers who received it, the rejected researchers
significantly outperformed the funded ones. Furthermore, the best rejected
proposals score on average as high on the outcomes of the peer review process
as the accepted proposals. Finally, we found that the Council under study
successfully corrected for gender effects during the selection process. We
explain why these findings may be more general than for this case only.
However, if research councils are not able to select the 'best' researchers,
perhaps they should reconsider their mission. In a final section with policy
implications, we discuss the role of research councils at the level of the
science system in terms of variation, innovation, and quality control.

• Event invitations are most likely to be accepted for a Tuesday at 3pm.
• Surprisingly, very little variation exists between the days of the week.
• On average only 3 or 4 people out of 10 will be available at any given time.
• People are happier than you might think to work through lunch.
• Flexibility jumps up at 10 and 11 in the morning, but peaks at 3PM.

Measuring the Happiness of Large-Scale Written Expression: Songs, Blogs, and Presidents