Benchmark Treasury coupon yield moves on the week ranged from a 5bp rally to a 23bp sell-off. The 2-year yield fell 5bp to 1.59%, while the 5-year yield rose 9bp to 2.77%, the 10-year 23bp to 3.87%, and the 30-year 2bp to 2.13%.
The 5-year TIPS yield rose 82bp to 2.45%, the 10-year 78bp to 2.97% and the 20-year 49bp to 2.98%, which dropped the benchmark inflation breakevens to just 0.32% for the 5-year and 0.90% for the 10-year.
We cut our 3Q real consumption forecast marginally to -2.7% from -2.6%, which would be the first decline in 17 years
We look for a 1.1% drop in overall retail sales in September
We forecast a 0.6% drop in the overall producer price index in September and a 0.1% rise in the core.
0.2% rise in the September consumer price inde
e expect September housing starts to fall 3% in September to an 870,000 unit annual rate
federal government to report a budget surplus of US$48 billion in September, far smaller than the US$113 billion that was recorded in the corresponding month a year ago.