June 2, 2000, AsiaNow, Vol.. 28, No. 21, Who's Behind The Blasts? Manila is divided over the perpetrators, by Antonio Lopez,

June 2, 2000, AsiaNow, Vol.. 28, No. 21, Who's Behind The Blasts? Manila is divided over the perpetrators, by Antonio Lopez,

The sudden spate of bombings in Metro Manila already has claimed one life and two police-intelligence careers. Now jittery Filipinos are wondering what else is in jeopardy. The economy is one obvious casualty of the upsurge in lawlessness and the war against separatists in Mindanao - though the Moro Islamic Liberation Front last week accepted a government invitation to resume stalled peace talks. But cracks also are widening in the cabinet of President Joseph Ejercito Estrada over the mostly foreign hostages held by Abu Sayyaf on southern islands.

In Manila, the hunt for perpetrators of at least three bombings within a week has yielded no shortage of suspects, but no results. A janitor was killed and 11 people injured - some in a panic stampede - when a homemade bomb exploded on May 21 outside a cinema toilet in the SM MegaMall in suburban Pasig City. This followed a shopping mall blast five days earlier in the heart of the financial district, in which 13 people were hurt. The same week, a rocket-propelled grenade nearly hit the official quarters of Philippine National Police chief, Gen. Panfilo Lacson. No one claimed responsibility for the blasts, which triggered a run on the peso and 22 "prank" threats that left the capital paranoid. Security is now tight.

Many blamed the MILF and Abu Sayyaf for the damage - including defense and military chiefs. But Lacson pointed to disgruntled military and police groups, which he said were trying to destabilize the government. Estrada's most trusted general, Lacson immediately sacked two superintendents in charge of intelligence. He also enlisted the services of the Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Task Force, which he chairs. "It's myopic to limit our investigation to the participation of the MILF," Lacson said, emphasizing at the same time that he did not discount a spillover from the Mindanao conflict. "We all know that there are elements in the military as well as the police who allow themselves to be used."

A stonefaced Gen. Angelo Reyes, the armed forces chief of staff, flatly denied any military involvement. Also in denial was the Reform the Armed Forces Movement (RAM), responsible for the ouster of president Ferdinand Marcos and seven unsuccessful coup attempts against president Corazon Aquino. "The RAM is not engaged in any destabilization work, unless there are some dissatisfied members, which I doubt," said Sen. Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, a former RAM leader. Adding yet another twist, an unnamed member of the military Young Officers Union told the Philippine Daily Inquirer that Lacson's men were responsible. He claimed the blasts were part of a plan that would culminate in "something big" by May, when elections are due.

Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado maintained that separatists were to blame. "Before the military victories against the Abu Sayyaf and the MILF, we didn't have these bombings in Metro Manila," he said. That view was backed by former defense minister Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile. He says the MILF has an alliance with the communist New People's Army to destabilize the government - a theory supported by naval intelligence. Both the MILF and the NPA disowned the bombings. One thing the military and the police do agree upon is that there is no coup in the offing. Said Lacson: "This destabilization is different from a coup attempt. A coup is surgical, while destabilization is long term." Said Mercado: "We have no evidence whatsoever of any group capable of mounting a coup." Still others decided Filipinos were being conditioned to accept a declaration of martial law. But Estrada was quick to knock that on the head: "I will not declare a state of emergency to cope with the problem. I have enough powers under the Constitution to defeat terrorism."

Estrada, in any case, has enough on his plate. Rivalries within his cabinet surfaced as negotiations to free 21 hostages held by Abu Sayyaf on Jolo island entered their second month. Chief government negotiator Robert Aventajado was furious when the Malaysian ambassador to Manila visited the terrorists on May 18. The ambassador said the trip was cleared by Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon. Earlier, Siazon and Aventajado had clashed over Abu Sayyaf's demands. (Abu Sayyaf is also still holding seven Filipino hostages on the nearby island of Basilan.) Asiaweek has learned that the government may be willing to refund "expenses" for the Jolo captives. But more speculation surrounds another negotiator, Libyan Abdul Rajab Azzarouk, who is said to have $1 million provided by the German government, which has three nationals on Jolo. Reportedly, Azzarouk simply can't find a reliable Abu Sayyaf leader to set up the exchange. Indeed, reliability is not a key word in the Philippines at the moment.