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Home/ stevenwarran's Library/ Notes/ September 3, 2000, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Officers' Assessment: Military option vs Abu Sayyaf is no solution, by Carlito Pablo,

September 3, 2000, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Officers' Assessment: Military option vs Abu Sayyaf is no solution, by Carlito Pablo,

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September 3, 2000, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Officers' Assessment: Military option vs Abu Sayyaf is no solution, by Carlito Pablo,

NOT all the hostages being held by the Abu Sayyaf will be killed by the outlaw group; it will keep some of them alive as protection against pursuing government troops. This grim scenario was painted by two officers who were asked to come up with possible endings to the Mindanao hostage crisis in the light of increasing calls from various sectors for a military assault on the Abu Sayyaf. 

The two officers--one from the military and the other the police--have had extensive combat and intelligence experience in Mindanao and are acquainted with the battle tactics of the Abu Sayyaf. The two, who asked not to be named, said neither a conventional nor a commando-type assault on the Abu Sayyaf would guarantee zero casualties among the hostages being held by the group. 

The two types of assault cannot ensure that ranking Abu Sayyaf leaders will be caught or neutralized either, they said. Speaking in separate interviews, the two officers noted that the hostage crisis was unlike other hostage situations. ''There are no fortified camps you can target. The Abu Sayyaf is integrated into the barangays they are operating in. The hostages are well dispersed,'' the police officer said. 

''Even if you launched a commando attack with the element of surprise, the tactical situation on the ground could get very, very fluid. The moment one layer of their security line is tripped and the alarms are set off, they'll start killing some of their hostages,'' he said. 

The military officer said that based on experience, the bandits would not meet a conventional attack head-on. A textbook conventional assault involves air and artillery bombings to soften a target, followed by ground troops and armor movement. 

''The Abu Sayyaf will not engage in positional warfare,'' the military officer said. ''They will resort to guerrilla tactics and this basically involves hit-and-run operations.'' He said the bandit's brandishing before the media their recently acquired weapons was more an act rather than a resolve to face the better-equipped and numerically superior government forces head-on. 

''They won't have much use for these (weapons). They'll just run. A number of them have had experience fighting government troops,'' he said. The two officers asserted that with the money collected by the Abu Sayyaf from ransom payments, its leaders had surely planned their escape. ''They'll want to live another day to enjoy the money. They are not planning to play heroes,'' the military officer said. 

Last April, the military assaulted the Abu Sayyaf's jungle lair, Camp Abdurajak in Basilan, in a bid to free hostages who included schoolchildren. In that operation, dubbed ''Oplan Final Option,'' the Armed Forces used a combination of conventional and commando operations. Ground forces frontally assaulted the camp under cover of air and ground artillery, while squads of elite Scout Rangers crept up a ravine behind the camp. 

The camp fell but the bandits were able to escape with their hostages, most of whom were later rescued. The Abu Sayyaf leaders in that engagement-- chieftain Khadafy Janjalani and spokesperson Abu Sabaya--have since linked up with their counterparts in Sulu who are holding the foreign hostages. The police officer concluded, ''The Abu Sayyaf cannot sustain a prolonged defensive action. I don't believe they will fight to the last man.'' 

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