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March 30, 2004, STRATFOR, Abu Sayyaf: Re-Emergence and Potential,

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March 30, 2004, STRATFOR, Abu Sayyaf: Re-Emergence and Potential,

STRATFOR ^ | March 30, 2004 2213 GMT

Posted on 03/30/2004 8:59:57 PM PST by Axion

Summary

 

Four suspected Abu Sayyaf militants have been arrested for allegedly plotting a series of attacks in metro Manila. The timing coincides conspicuously with the start of a regional anti-terrorism conference in the Philippines -- and bolsters the president's standing in the May 10 elections -- but it is significant that the four allegedly were part of a cell loyal to Khadaffy Janjalani, the ideologically driven co-founder of the Abu Sayyaf. The re-emergence of a reradicalized core of Abu Sayyaf militants could prove a magnet for members of the larger Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) who are disgruntled with the peace process with Manila.

 

Analysis

 

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on March 30 announced the detention of four suspected Abu Sayyaf militants who allegedly were plotting a wave of bombings in metro Manila. Arroyo said the capture had "preempted a Madrid-level attack on the metropolis by capturing an explosive cache of 80 pounds of TNT, which was intended to be used for bombing malls and trains." The four were members of a cell with strong ties to Abu Sayyaf co-founder Khadaffy Janjalani, who has been working to bring Abu Sayyaf back to its ideological roots.

 

The announcement coincided with the start of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum on Counterterrorism and Transnational Crime, which is meeting in the Philippines. Arroyo also is trying to demonstrate her effectiveness as the May 10 presidential elections near. Politicking aside, however, the detention confirms the resurgence of a radicalized Abu Sayyaf core, one that soon might bolster its ranks as the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front prepare to restart peace talks.

 

Several variations of their names have been given in the media, but a picture of the detainees is beginning to emerge from a wide sampling of sources. Among the four was a cousin of Janjalani, who is believed to have personally beheaded an American hostage in 2001. Another claims to have carried out the Feb. 27 bombing of the SuperFerry 14, which left more than 100 dead. The other two were involved in several high-profile kidnappings, as well as a 2002 bombing that left one American soldier dead and another injured. They reportedly have admitted their links to Abu Sayyaf and their alleged crimes.

 

Abu Sayyaf has gone through several iterations since its emergence in 1991. It devolved from an Islamist militant organization bent on creating a separate Muslim state in the southern Philippines to a loose collection of kidnap-for-ransom gangs after the 1998 death of founder Abdurajak Abubakar Janjalani. After Sept. 11, 2001, the United States joined in the fight against Abu Sayyaf, training Philippine forces on Basilan and other stronghold islands. Amid power struggles, ideological rifts and intensified government activity, Abu Sayyaf has managed to survive and continue training, recruiting and carrying out operations.

 

Now a much leaner group than it was at its peak of more than 1,000 members, Abu Sayyaf continues to exist as several different factions. Perhaps the most dangerous is Janjalani's cell -- a part of which was rounded up in Manila. Janjalani long has struggled to bring Abu Sayyaf back to its ideological core, and the dedicated fighters still working with him are much more motivated and willing to take dramatic action against Philippine and foreign targets. Their claim of the SuperFerry bombing, if true, demonstrates a renewed focus on soft targets, and the suspected plot to set off bombs at rail and shopping areas in the capital further confirms it.

 

While Janjalani commands only a fraction of the estimated 300 to 400 who claim Abu Sayyaf membership, his faction soon could find a ready pool of new recruits. With the larger MILF preparing to resume peace talks with the government, splinter groups and individuals are starting to peel off due to opposition to the apparent capitulation to Manila and its backer, the United States. Many of these fighters will seek new leadership or associations, and the Janjalani faction of Abu Sayyaf, which might have relocated to Mindanao in addition to having cells in Manila, will welcome them.

 

Manila has declared the end of Abu Sayyaf several times, only to be unpleasantly surprised by the group's return. Once again it appears to be strengthening its position and preparing for more dramatic attacks. With a new pool of recruits -- and potential financing, training and planning links to the regional Jemaah Islamiyah and the global al Qaeda networks -- the potential for a new spate of violence against soft targets in the Philippines is rising. Given Manila's close cooperation with the United States and the political and social instability of the election season, Abu Sayyaf is looking to make another statement; with one cell rounded up in Manila, others might act sooner rather than later to avoid preempting the plans.

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