This link has been bookmarked by 241 people . It was first bookmarked on 19 Mar 2020, by someone privately.
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11 May 20
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10 May 20
Paul Stilesre: news South Korea is again closing bars & restaurants... Don McNeil from NYT has been the one journalist who has helped me prepare mentally for the next1-3 years. He often cites this piece "The Hammer and The Dance." https://t.co/WohKE0NI6N
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01 May 20
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24 Apr 20
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21 Apr 20
marclosHammer and Dance Analogy
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20 Apr 20
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08 Apr 20
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07 Apr 20
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30 Mar 20
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29 Mar 20
Wessel van Rensburg@RicharddeNooy @UrsulaChikane @DazMSmith This is the best primer for the thinking behind the shutdown:
https://t.co/jVbef5YjN9 -
Colin McNeil"Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed."
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28 Mar 20
WYmIaaXJEgSummary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn't be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don't take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
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27 Mar 20
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26 Mar 20
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25 Mar 20
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24 Mar 20
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Helen Chan. @iHrithik You tweeted my first post on #Coronavirus. Thank you. You massively contributed to spread the message.
I have a new article to help governments know what decisions to make:
https://t.co/ceZHwTZmHM
It makes it clear that the only viable opti -
Darren HudginsLots of great information here. What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time. Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance https://t.co/QuuPA1ORrW
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Michael VivianThis article measures the success of going into full lockdown a lot quicker than Australia is acting eg only one person leaves the house every 3 days to get food.
Sounds extreme to some, but may last only a few weeks with tremendous success
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23 Mar 20
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sean williamsLots of great information here. What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time. Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance https://t.co/QuuPA1ORrW
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Sheri EdwardsThis makes the case for short term aggressive action (the hammer) to set the stage for long terms management and response (the dance). Maybe not the thing to read at a moment of peak anxiety. https://t.co/SJ90qtz4IF
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Artur TalladaHe donat una ullada a aquest article i crec que dóna una mica d'optimisme sobre el Coronavirus i possibles respostes a dues preguntes que ens fem tots ara: Quan podria durar el confinament i com podria ser l'endemà?
#GenomicsForEveryone -
michael chalka brilliant and thorough description of the Covid19 problem, with math and science
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22 Mar 20
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Mary Bernas. @iHrithik You tweeted my first post on #Coronavirus. Thank you. You massively contributed to spread the message.
I have a new article to help governments know what decisions to make:
https://t.co/ceZHwTZmHM
It makes it clear that the only viable opti -
Justin Yantho"South Korea had the worst epidemic outside of China. Now, it’s largely under control. And they did it without asking people to stay home. They achieved it mostly with very aggressive testing, contact tracing, and enforced quarantines and isolations…
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Lisa SpornHave a read of this. This is the argument for much stronger lockdown measures NOW to massively reduce the impact and potential deaths from Covid-19. https://t.co/yZb2S9sRYl
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21 Mar 20
Shortman"What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
This article follows Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, an article with over 40 million views translated into over 30 languages describing the urgency of the Coronavirus problem. If you agree with this article, consider signing the corresponding White House petition. Translations available in 8 languages at the bottom.
Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn't be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don't take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed." -
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Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way
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Others, like the US, UK, Switzerland or Netherlands, have dragged their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures.
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Our healthcare system is already collapsing.
Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions. -
The world has never learned as fast about anything, ever.
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something weird about this list of countries? Outside of China and Iran, which have suffered massive, undeniable outbreaks, and Brazil and Malaysia, every single country in this list is among the wealthiest in the world.
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Or is it more likely that rich countries are better able to identify the virus?
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On Thursday, 3/12, the President dismissed suggestions that the Spanish authorities had been underestimating the health threat.
On Friday, they declared the State of Emergency.
On Saturday, measures were taken: -
Specific ban on taking kids out for a walk
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No, that’s not an error.
That red dotted line is the capacity we have of ICU beds. Everyone above that line would be in critical condition but wouldn’t be able to access the care they need, and would likely die.
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So why is the fatality rate close to 4%?
If 5% of your cases require intensive care and you can’t provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that.
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You should be shocked. When you hear: “We’re going to do some mitigation” what you should really hear is: “We will knowingly overwhelm the healthcare system, driving the fatality rate up by a factor of 10x at least.”
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RNA-based viruses like the coronavirus or the flu tend to mutate around 100 times faster than DNA-based ones—although the coronavirus mutates more slowly than influenza viruses.
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the best way for this virus to mutate is to have millions of opportunities to do so, which is exactly what a mitigation strategy would provide: hundreds of millions of people infected.
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mitigation strategy not only assumes millions of deaths for a country like the US or the UK. It also gambles on the fact that the virus won’t mutate too much — which we know it does. And it will give it the opportunity to mutate. So once we’re done with a few million deaths, we could be ready for a few million more — every year.
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Suppression Strategy tries to apply heavy measures to quickly get the epidemic under control
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Go hard right now
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set up a tracing operation like the ones they have in China or other East Asia countries, where they can identify all the people that every sick person met, and can put them in quarantine
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This is not rocket science: it’s the basics of how East Asia Countries have been able to control this outbreak
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we don’t need years to get our armor, we need weeks. Let’s do everything we can to get our production humming now
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We will need health workers as soon as possible. Where will we get them? We need to train people to assist nurses, and we need to get medical workers out of retirement
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eople haven’t learned to stop hand-shaking. They still hug. They don’t open doors with their elbow. They don’t wash their hands after touching a door knob. They don’t disinfect tables before sitting
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But if they weren’t scarce, people should wear them in their daily lives
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This paper, driving policy today, has been brutally criticized for core flaws: They ignore contact tracing (at the core of policies in South Korea, China or Singapore among others) or travel restrictions (critical in China), ignore the impact of big crowds
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The time needed for the Hammer is weeks, not months.
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Within 2 weeks, the country was starting to get back to work. Within ~5 weeks it was completely under control.
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China’s measures were stronger. For example, people were limited to one person per household allowed to leave home every three days to buy food.
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South Korea had the worst epidemic outside of China. Now, it’s largely under control. And they did it without asking people to stay home. They achieved it mostly with very aggressive testing, contact tracing, and enforced quarantines and isolations
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It’s a matter of discipline, execution, and how much the population abides by the rules.
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paper explains Singapore’s approach
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During the Hammer, the goal is to get R as close to zero, as fast as possible
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Wuhan, it is calculated that R was initially 3.9, and after the lockdown and centralized quarantine, it went down to 0.32
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very cheap ways to do that, like banning events with more than a certain number of people (eg, 50, 500), or asking people to work from home when they can
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Other are much, much more expensive economically, socially and ethically, such as closing schools and universities, asking everybody to stay home, or closing businesses.
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- List all the measures they can take to reduce R
- Get a sense of the benefit of applying them: the reduction in R
- Get a sense of their cost: the economic, social, and ethical cost.
- Stack-rank the initiatives based on their cost-benefit
- Pick the ones that give the biggest R reduction up till 1, for the lowest cost.
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On the other, countries can fight. They can lock down for a few weeks to buy us time, create an educated action plan, and control this virus until we have a vaccine.
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Alan LewSummary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: “This coronavirus thing is not a big deal” to declaring the state of emergency. Yet many countries are still not doing much. Why? -
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we’re going to look at what a true Suppression Strategy would look like. We can call it the Hammer and the Dance.
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John LuceroThis article is essential reading, especially for our policymakers. Can Dr @zfrmrza or any other health minister counter the premise of this article with scientific logic? We need to buy time & this article explains how.
https://t.co/SBnHpP4ddO
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This article is essential reading, especially for our policymakers. Can Dr @zfrmrza or any other health minister counter the premise of this article with scientific logic? We need to buy time & this article explains how.
https://t.co/SBnHpP4ddO -
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20 Mar 20
Gloria S.Wow. Very long, lots of stats and graphs about various approaches and the projected effects on hospital ICUs and death rates.
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Bethany Smith"The Hammer and the Dance": All countries are making decisions that will determine the long-term outcome for #Covid_19 -- this article helps make sense of all of those choices, and why we (the US) need more than the current "mitigation" strategy https://t
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Alex KLong, complicated, but well-written read if you want to understand Covid-19 implications better than an oversimplified viral graphic can tell you. https://t.co/PMlHUoPgtd
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Bill FulkersonThe Dance of R
I call the months-long period between the Hammer and a vaccine the Dance because it won’t be a period during which measures are always the same harsh ones. Some regions will see outbreaks again, others won’t for long periods of time. Depending on how cases evolve, we will need to tighten up social distancing measures or we will be able to release them. That is the dance of R: a dance of measures between getting our lives back on track and spreading the disease, one of economy vs. healthcare. -
Ted Eytan, MD MS MPHNew Article!
Summary: Strong #coronavirus measures today should only take a few weeks, there wouldn’t be a peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way.
https://t.co/ceZHw -
Muzaffaruddin Alvivia All News on 'The Twitter Times: Muzaffar69/corpgov' http://bit.ly/2Mw5vpR
via All News on 'The Twitter Times: Muzaffar69/corpgov' https://bit.ly/2Mw5vpR#CorpGov All News on 'The Twitter Times: Muzaffar69_corpgov'
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Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
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19 Mar 20
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