This link has been bookmarked by 345 people . It was first bookmarked on 11 Mar 2020, by someone privately.
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20 Mar 20Erich Feldmeier
"models with plenty of sources:
How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?
What will happen when these cases materialize?
What should you do?
When?
When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:
The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now."commonsense economy science microbiology MINT biology behaviour health
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19 Mar 20
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18 Mar 20gthaberlach
Long - exponential curves. With distancing, enough hospitals, mortality rate below 2% - otherwise HIGHER.
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17 Mar 20
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16 Mar 20
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Karen Winsper
This is a must read for anyone wondering about schools shutting down, work from home orders, and the social distancing advice. Proud our superintendent made the tough call. #NPSPride https://t.co/7UgeNRnC62
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Marco Berenguer
Buscamos soluciones, y esto es lo que hay que hacer: @sanidadgob @gomezgardenes @oriolmitja
https://t.co/TDJJOKmyEx https://t.co/HeLZp1JsDW -
15 Mar 20
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John Polacek
@jeffcantalupo @coronavirus This article digs pretty deep into the data and gets into the count of true cases vs. reported cases. https://t.co/bBTXUhc3vK
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Paul Leenards
Updated on 3/13/2020. Now reflects an update on containment vs. mitigation strategies. 26 translations at the bottom. Send me more existing translations in private notes at the bottom. This article has received over 28 million… https://ift.tt/2vfpRxI
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But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore
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The total number of cases grew exponentially until China contained it. But then, it leaked outside, and now it’s a pandemic that nobody can stop
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grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
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the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening
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Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.
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Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.
Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn’t. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every other Chinese region before the end of February.
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All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it.
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South Korea: The country is probably an outlier. The coronavirus was contained for the first 30 cases. Patient 31 was a super-spreader who passed it to thousands of other people. Because the virus spreads before people show symptoms, by the time the authorities realized the issue, the virus was out there. They’re now paying the consequences of that one instance.
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the virus had been spreading undetected for weeks. It’s not like there were only 3 cases. It’s that authorities only knew about 3, and one of them was dead because the more serious the condition, the more likely somebody is to be tested.
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This is an issue: You only know the official cases, not the true ones
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We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days)
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mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1%
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use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average)
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Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined.
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19 of these deaths were from one cluster, which might not have spread the virus widely. So if we consider those 19 deaths as one, the total deaths in the state is four. Updating the model with that number, we still get ~3,000 cases today
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With the number of cases we see today in countries like the US, Spain, France, Iran, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden or Switzerland, Wuhan was already in lockdown.
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Shortman
"Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
Updated on 3/13/2020. Now reflects an update on containment vs. mitigation strategies. 19 translations at the bottom. Send me more existing translations in private notes at the bottom. This article has received 24 million views in the last 72h." -
14 Mar 20Samir Prakash
Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
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Sara Wilkie
A very important, albeit frightening, article that underscores the benefits of ‘over-reacting’ and the risks of ignorance and delay (i.e., the U.S. approach to date). And it’s worth sharing with hs Ss, particularly for the math behind the analysis. https:
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Jennifer Felke
Knowledge is power! Protect yourselves, each other and the world.....please read and know what we are up against!https://t.co/aYU2kjJEWa. Big acts matter...so do small ones. Do your part!
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Nigel Robertson
A very long and detailed post looking at the maths of the pandemic and mitigation measures. The sooner you implement distancing the better.
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Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
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For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.
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Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.
Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn’t. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every other Chinese region before the end of February.
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If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
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if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
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Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined.
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All of this is what drives a system to have a fatality rate of ~4% instead of ~0.5%. If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today.
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The virus survives for up to 9 days on different surfaces such as metal, ceramics and plastics. That means things like doorknobs, tables, or elevator buttons can be terrible infection vectors.
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Containment
Containment is making sure all the cases are identified, controlled, and isolated. It’s what Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or Taiwan are doing so well: They very quickly limit people coming in, identify the sick, immediately isolate them, use heavy protective gear to protect their health workers, track all their contacts, quarantine them… This works extremely well when you’re prepared and you do it early on, and don’t need to grind your economy to a halt to make it happen.
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Mitigation requires heavy social distancing. People need to stop hanging out to drop the transmission rate (R), from the R=~2–3 that the virus follows without measures, to below 1, so that it eventually dies out.
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The earlier you impose heavy measures, the less time you need to keep them, the easier it is to identify brewing cases, and the fewer people get infected.
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Because when the virus is rampant, the only measure is to lock down all the infected areas to stop spreading it at once.
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One approach is to gradually increase measures. Unfortunately, that gives precious time for the virus to spread. If you want to be safe, do it Wuhan style. People might complain now, but they’ll thank you later.
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Salvo Fedele
Last night I advised those in my lab to work from home. This blog is the best data I've seen & the argument for immediate social distancing is convincing. Please read & forward it on to your employers & networks as working from home has to hap
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13 Mar 20
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Mário Ramos
Absolutamente impressionante. Cada dia de indecisão pode representar semanas de tragédia dentro de muito pouco tempo. https://t.co/J9rvHWyFrd
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Ivan Langton
This is simply the best article on COVID-19 I have seen. Everyone should read this. (Best on a fullscreen though, graph-heavy.) https://t.co/hzzkQ7P0Fn
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luz bek
Chaque jour de retard compte sur les conséquences de la propagation. Article à lire avant d'aller travailler vendredi ou d'apporter son enfant à l'école :
https://t.co/cyCnXZkEOf
#COVID19 #Covid_19 #CoronaVirusUpdate #coronavirusfr #SARSCoV2 #SARS_COV_2COVID19 Covid_19 CoronaVirusUpdate coronavirusfr SARSCoV2 SARS_COV_2 CoronavirusPandemic
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Marc Lijour
#SocialDistancing #FlattenTheCurve
https://t.co/RUi3yYdolu -
mbonfil
¿Nos deberíamos preocupar un poco más por el #coronavirus? ¿En México se están tomando las medidas necesarias? De acuerdo con este estudio: definitivamente NO. https://t.co/qpRrHylZFE
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Tim Draimin
This is the most sobering and thought-provoking article about Covid19 scale and spread I have seen. A long read, but worth it. Even if only part of the stats we have up until now become fact, I am stunned. https://t.co/DEagFadNrB
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Barbara Lindsey
PSA: we have one chance to stop #COVID19 in it’s tracks in the USA.
One.
We must use social distancing to stop the spread.
If you can: work from home.
If you can’t:
-stay 6 ft away from people
-Don’t touch or shake hands
-No gatherings
-Wash hands -
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The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now. -
he grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
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On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
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a: The country is probably an outlier. The coronavirus was contained for the first 30 cases. Patient 31 was a super-spreader who passed it to thousands of other people.
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Washington State is the US’s Wuhan.The number of cases there is growing exponentially. It’s currently at 140.
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We know from other places that the death rate of the coronavirus is anything between 0.5% and 5% (more on that later). How could the death rate be 33%?
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The conclusion is that there are likely ~1,100 cases in Washington state right now.
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But the US is vastly undertesting because it doesn’t have enough kits. The country decided to create their own test kit, which turned out not to work.
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Turkey, with no cases of coronavirus, had 10 times the testing per inhabitant than the US. The situation is not much better today, with ~8,000 tests performed in the US, which means ~4,000 people have been tested.
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In the Comunidad de Madrid region, with 600 official cases and 17 deaths, the true number of cases is likely between 10,000 and 60,000
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The World Health Organization (WHO) quotes 3.4% as the fatality rate (% people who contract the coronavirus and then die). This number is out of context so let me explain it.
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It really depends on the country and the moment: between 0.6% in South Korea and 4.4% in Iran. So what is it? We can use a trick to figure it out.
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China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu.
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Hubei’s fatality rate will probably converge towards 4.8%. Meanwhile, for the rest of China, it will likely converge to ~0.9%:
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Diamond Princess cruise: with 706 cases, 6 deaths and 100 recoveries, the fatality rate will be between 1% and 6.5%.
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Since mortality is much higher for older people, countries with an aging population like Japan will be harder hit on average than younger countries like Nigeria. There are also weather factors, especially humidity and temperature, but it’s still unclear how this will impact transmission and fatality rates.
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Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
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Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
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Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.
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Around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 2.5% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation).
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country like the US has only 1% of the masks it needs to cover the needs of its healthcare workers (12M N95, 30M surgical vs. 3.5B needed). If a lot of cases appear at once, there will be masks for only 2 weeks.
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Countries like Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong or Singapore, as well as Chinese regions outside of Hubei, have been prepared and given the care that patients need.
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All of this is what drives a system to have a fatality rate of ~4% instead of ~0.5%. If you want your city or your country to be part of the 4%, don’t do anything today.
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This is a pandemic now. It can’t be eliminated. But what we can do is reduce its impact.
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If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether
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our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them.
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or the 1918 flu in the US, how many more deaths there were per city depending on how fast measures were taken
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The recent US announcement that most travel from Europe was banned is a containment measure for a country that has, as of today, 3 times the cases that Hubei had when it shut down, growing exponentiall
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the Wuhan travel ban had delaying the epidemic. The bubble sizes show the number of daily cases. The top line shows the cases if nothing is done. The two other lines show the impact if 40% and 90% of travel is eliminated. This is a model created by epidemiologists, because we can’t know for sure.
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It’s very hard to see any change in the development of the epidemic.
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the Wuhan travel ban only delayed the spread in China by 3–5 days.
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eople need to stop hanging out to drop the transmission rate (R), from the R=~2–3 that the virus follows without measures, to below 1, so that it eventually dies out.
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To solve this, I’ve created a model.
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The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now. -
So if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested. Around 20,000 will require hospitalization, 5,000 will need the ICU, and 1,000 will need machines that we don’t have enough of today. And that’s just with 100,000 cases.
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The stories that happened in Hubei and those in Italy are starting to become eerily similar. Hubei built two hospitals in ten days, but even then, it was completely overwhelmed.
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If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them.
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we need to get it as close to 1 for as long as possible, to flatten the curve.
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Rebecca Conroy
After four decades of neoliberalism, which has eroded government capacity and cut public healthcare, western governments are profoundly unprepared to respond to this crisis. https://t.co/T4zcS09OTA
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Kayla Sosnow
The more we postpone cases, the better the healthcare system can function, the lower the mortality rate, and the higher the share of the population that will be vaccinated before it gets infected.
How do we flatten the curve?
Social Distancing -
12 Mar 20
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Christine Ollendorff
Je ne peux que relayer largement cette contribution, dont les hypothèses sont explicites, et les conclusions sans appel. LISEZ LA !
A titre personnel je vais modifier mes comportements, stopper mes déplacements collectifs, etc. https://t.co/2iNwjGx1Ju -
Ian Soper
This is the best article I've read on #COVID19.
"Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of 0.5-0.9%. Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate of 3-5%".
Let's act to flatten the curve.
https://t.co/r9dJTgxude -
Dan R.D.
We should start practicing social distance. It’s not rude - it’s considerate. https://t.co/aymUr7d5DZ
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G N
Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?coronavirus containment mitigation trends infection treatment healthcare health care testing impact scale growth
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June Breivik
Norge er ca 2 uker bak Italia i #corona eksponensiellvekst-kurven, men @erna_solberg er opptatt av økonomien. Takk Erna for du styret mot 10-gangen i dødsrate i forhold til land som setter inn tidlig lockdown tiltak... ref: https://t.co/wxq04NZ0PB
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Guttorm H
Utrolig lesbart om hvordan viruset sprer seg. Og hva vi må gjøre. #koronaviruset
https://t.co/xLaUowIKnN -
Wessel van Rensburg
In a nutshell: there are historical, evidence- & model-based reasons to estimate that COVID-19 kills 0.5-0.9% of patients wherever spread slows to a pace hospitals can accommodate, and ~3-5% where hospitals become overburdered
This *requires* interve -
Kevin Erb
Recommend https://t.co/1umN9s4mGJ
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Oliver Rainer
What a smug and underwhelming address by @ScottMorrisonMP about the COVID-19 pandemic. Was hoping for cancellation of the Melbourne Grand Prix, at least. He clearly hasn’t read this: https://t.co/8Xqi9i2ELq #covid19australia
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Jad Jamous
March 9 we informed the @anghami team that we will move to work from home, the decision made sense because safety is paramount, we are already interconnected & can keep operating just fine.
Social distancing is what works, we all should act now ! #COV -
Lars Moelleken
@jrf_nl @derickr @phpsw @akrabat https://t.co/WngSLcJfpG
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Brian Dusablon
RT @CaseyNewton: Well I read this and now I’m one of those “cancel everything” people
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Mark Pesce
This is the best article I've read on #COVID19.
"Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of 0.5-0.9%. Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate of 3-5%".
Let's act to flatten the curve.
https://t.co/r9dJTgxudeCOVID19 coronavirus epidemic health COVID-19 USA FlattenTheCurve
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Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
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The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now. -
At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.
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Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.
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That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
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With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined.
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Tina Rettler-Pagel
This is by far the best coronavirus writing I have seen thus far. Clear analysis, succinct writing, and well-made charts. https://t.co/Y9SU6hDgHs
— Galen Hall (@galenhall) March 11, 2020 -
11 Mar 20
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Dante-Gabryell Monson
"if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today"
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Nils Müller
http://twitter.com/monikabielskyte/status/1237858175631552514
One of the most insightful articles you can read right now on what the current (Hubei, rest of China, Italy, Iran) data on #Covid19 can tell us about the potential of its future spread & the urgent precautions we should undertake. By @tomaspueyo
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Charles Nepote
Tout le monde devrait lire cet article. J'espère que nos dirigeants, politiques et économiques, l'ont lu ou le liront. https://t.co/9I8M3pK47o
Cet article a été traduit de manière collaborative en français. Plus aucune excuse pour ne pas le lire. https://t.co/UmMJ5mMXbr https://t.co/WSz2eztsb2
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