This link has been bookmarked by 1 people . It was first bookmarked on 23 Jan 2012, by katzkawai.
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23 Jan 12
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In a sense, what techniques like Bueno de Mesquita’s try to do is take the element of human judgment out of prediction: The idea is that if you can ignore opinions and find a more systematic way to interpret the facts, you stand a better chance of being right.
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The premise is simple enough: If you ask enough people, their collective wisdom will average out to something closer to true than any one of them could have provided on his or her own.
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Earlier this year, a government group within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence known as the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, launched a competition in which five teams of computer scientists, psychologists, statisticians, and other specialists at universities and private firms around the country try to build the best approach to crowdsourcing the future.
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Johan Bollen
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According to their analysis, an uptick in messages associated with anxious feelings was usually followed three days later by a decline in the market.
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