YouTube - Authors@Google: Philip Tetlock - The Diigo Meta page

• 25 Mar 11
  

  Mireille Jansma

  "Philip Tetlock is the Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His current research areas and interests include the following: * Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations? * Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Thoughtful self-critical analysis? ... * De-biasing judgment and choice. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures be used to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making?
  
  
  Professor Tetlock came to Google to talk about his book, "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?"
  
  This event took place on August 24, 2006, as a part of the Authors@Google series."

  leadership corporate culture experts complexity decision making tetlock foresight bias judgement

• 31 Aug 08
  

  Tarmo Toikkanen

  How well do experts actually predict the future? Very poorly. Only two factors affect their accuracy, and even then they are worse than simple extrapolation models.

  cognition 2008

  • • The only two factors that affect prediction accuracy and discrimination of individuals are:
      - high score in Cognitive Reflection Test
      - fox score in the hedgehog-fox test
    Add Sticky Note
• 10 Jun 08
  

  ken .

  The ExpertProblem - there's value in keeping score, inverse relationship between charismatic pundits (entertaining bloggers) and empirical track record at forecasts, dart throwing monkeys, market averages, hedgehogs/foxes, SMARTER forecasts, policy

  blogging cognitive decision history knowledge market politics research social trust video

Public Stiky Notes

• 
  Tarmo Toikkanen on 2008-08-31
  The only two factors that affect prediction accuracy and discrimination of individuals are:
  - high score in Cognitive Reflection Test
  - fox score in the hedgehog-fox test

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