Why Obama-McCain race deserves 'historic' label - The Diigo Meta page

• 02 Nov 08
  

  Clay Burell

  politics usa history elections08 obama mccain

  • Take the strong link between age and views on gay rights or abortion. Young people take both for granted. "For every 100 people over age 70 who die and are replaced by 100 people between 18 and 24, you get more liberal social attitudes," Fiorina said.

  • Not only McCain but much of the conservative intellectual elite warn of an impending turn to European-style socialism at home and appeasement abroad, especially if Democrats seize a monopoly in Washington.

    
    

    Historians call the fears exaggerated, a reflection of the country's 30-year rightward shift. On many issues, Obama is to the right of Nixon, the Republican who proposed a guaranteed income for all Americans, supported affirmative action, imposed wage and price controls, and established much of today's environmental regulation.

    
    

    "A conservative in 1968 was far more liberal than a liberal is in 2008," said Schulman.

  • 1 more annotations...

  • • An Obama victory offers two potential paths: a major political realignment, following Roosevelt in 1932 and Reagan in 1980. This would require that he rack up successes in his first two years, a honeymoon when presidential power is at its peak.

      
      

      If he does, and realignment is under way, he could avoid the catastrophic losses that Clinton suffered after his 1993 health care plan crashed under a Democratic Congress, replaced in 1994 by a Republican one.

      
      

      Another model is 1964, with a big Democratic win followed by a collapse four years later, or 1976, when Democrat Jimmy Carter ran a flawless campaign but proved a weak leader unable to control his party or rally the public.

      
      

      "You could have a scenario where Obama is under a lot of pressure from his left and yet can't do big economic things because of the difficult situation we're in, where he can't disengage from Iraq and Afghanistan as quickly as the base would like," Fiorina said. Obama could then come under attack from his left, face congressional losses in 2010 and by 2012 a challenge from his own party, perhaps Hillary Rodham Clinton.

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