This link has been bookmarked by 242 people . It was first bookmarked on 12 Jan 2007, by eliazar.
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MassimoneOvercoming Bias began in November ’06 as a group blog on the general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we have corrected for such biases, when we have done no such thing.
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kevinoempty
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So please everyone, dial it back a bit. Yes, if for you what Trump has already done is so bad that no compromise is tolerable, well then you are lost to me. But for the rest of you, I’m not saying to forgot, or to not watch carefully. But wait until Trump actually does something concrete that justifies loudly saying this time is clearly different and now everything is at sake. Yeah that may happen, but surely you want Trump folks to know that isn’t the only possible outcome. There need to be some things Trump folks could do to pursue some of their agendas that would be politics as usual. Politics where your side doesn’t run the presidency, and so you have to expect to lose on things where you would have won had Clinton become president. But still, politics where our existing institutions can continue to function without everyone expecting everyone else to defect from the usual norms because now everything is at stake.
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Added 21Nov: Apparently before the election more people on Trump’s side were talked about presuming the election was rigged if their side lost. Without concrete evidence to support such accusations, that also seems a lamentable example of defecting from existing institutions because now everything is at stake. HT Carl Shulman.
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We expect those who innovate politically to differ in predictable ways. They will tend to be outsiders looking for a way in, and their personal preferences will less well match existing standard positions. Because innovators must search the space of possibilities, their positions and groups will be vaguer and vary more over time, and they will less hew to existing rules and taboos on such things. They will more often work their crowds on the fly to explore their reactions, relative to sticking to prepared speeches. Innovators will tend to arise more when power is more up for grabs, with many contenders. Successful innovation tends to be a surprise, and is more likely the longer it has been since a major innovation, or “realignment,” with more underlying social change during that period. When an innovator finds a new coalition to represent, that coalition will be less attracted to this politician’s personal features and more to the fact that someone is offering to represent them.
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his is why I’m not very optimistic about creating human level AI before brain emulations. Y
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ose who expect AI-before-emulations tend to think that there just aren’t that many brain parts, i.e., that the brain doesn’t really embody very many lines of code. Even though the range of capacities of a human brain, even a baby brain, seems large compared to most known software systems, these people think that this analogy is misleading
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hey guess that in fact there is a concise powerful theory of intelligence that will allow huge performance gains once we understand it. In contrast, I see the analogy to familiar software as more relevant; the vast capacity of human brains suggests they embody the equivalent of a great many lines of code. Content matters more than architecture.
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minimize the sum of the costs of bad things happening
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- The richer and more capable our civilization gets, the lower seem its chance of being extinguished by most disasters. Ems would make us richer faster, and ems survive biological disaster especially well.
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- They require a sudden commitment regarding one’s entire future life, rather than giving people a chance to learn and adapt to this new possibility. Most people are commitment averse.
Misleading features of these survey questions:
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- They ask people to become weird, accepting an offer made to no one else, and leaving the familiar world of their associates’ options and actions.
- They put people in a far (vs. near) frame of mind and then ask them to affirm a high value on money. In far mode people are idealistic, and so think they care less about money.
Even today a million dollars is a lot of money, enough that most people would do a lot to get it.
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Markus KalelaOvercoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson's blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.
blog philosophy psychology science economics blogs culture statistics bias
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Frida LeeOvercoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson's blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.
|Humanidades| Politics Economics Culture |Academia| Psychology Science Medicine Education|Research Voices|Ideas Imported
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pedro_daltroOvercoming Bias began in November ‘06 as a group blog on the general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we have corrected for such bias
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