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The same thing happened in California a few years ago with natural gas: a production drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.
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03 Nov 09
ashley cancharidebate10
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Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, bankers, and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
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he same thing happened in California a few years ago with natural gas: a production drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.
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nce the decline gets under way, production will drop (conservatively) by 3% per year, every year. War, terrorism, extreme weather and other "above ground" geopolitical factors will likely push the effective decline rate past 10% per year, thus cutting the total supply by 50% in 7 years. Source
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As of the year 2002, approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US. Source The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:Pesticides and agro-chemicals are made from oil;
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Most farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil-derived fuels.
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up to 20 percent of the country's fossil fuel consumption
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o the food chai
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which points out that fossil fuel use by the food system "often rivals t
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To feed an average family of four in the developed world uses up the equivalent of 930 gallons of gasoline a year - just shy of the 1,070 gallons that family would use up each year to power their cars.
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quantities of oil are required for all plastics, all computers and all high-tech devices.
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The construction of an average car consumes the energy equivalent of approximately 20 barrels (840 gallons) of oil.
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keep in mind that the manufacturing of one ton of cement requires
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45 gallons of oil
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Without an affordable supply of oil coupled with healthy and robust financial markets to capitalize the transition, a non-chaotic adaptation phase is unlikely as the raw materials and investment capital necessary to fuel such a large-scale transition will have evaporated
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<!-- </hs:element26> --><!-- <hs:element27> -->consequences of Peak Oil as follows:. . . the consequences would be unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would tip the world into a generations-long economic depression. Millions would lose their jobs as industry implodes. Farm tractors would be idled for lack of fuel, triggering massive famines. Energy wars would flare. And carless suburbanites would trudge to their nearest big box stores, not to buy Chinese made clothing transported cheaply across the globe, but to scavenge glass and copper wire from abandoned buildings.
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xford trained geologist Jeremy Leggett, author of The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe,
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truth can no longer be obscured, the price will spike, the economy nosedive, and the underpinnings of our civilization will start tumbling like dominos. "The price of houses will collapse. Stock markets will crash. Within a short period, human wealth -- little more than a pile of paper at the best of times, even with the confidence about the future high among traders -- will shrivel." There will be emergency summits, diplomatic initiatives, urgent exploration efforts, but the turmoil will not subside. Thousands of companies will go bankrupt, and millions will be unemployed. "Once affluent cities with street cafés will have queues at soup kitchens and armies of beggars. The crime rate will soar. The earth has always been a dangerous place, but now it will become a tinderbox."
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oil production peaked in late 2005 (source) even as demand continued to soar. Consequently, the price rose almost 400% in only three years.
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1999 while still CEO of Halliburton, Dick Cheney stated:
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here will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.
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. . . t
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emember that the oil producing nations of the world are currently pumping at full capacity but are struggling to produce much more than 85 million barrels per day.
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May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel. Simmons explained that with oil prices at $182 per barrel, gas prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon.
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Without timely mitigation, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide.
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Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary
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any administration) can be honest with the American people about the severity of what is unfolding. If they were honest with the country, half the nation would likley refuse to believe them while the other half would likely panic.
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Obama himself is aware of Peak Oil, key members of his administration certainly are.
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[Chu] was my boss," Fridley says. "He knows all about peak oil, but he can't talk about it. If the government announced that peak oil was threatening our economy, Wall Street would crash. He just can't say anything about it."
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2007 report commissioned by the Pentagon details the amount of fuel necessary to run modern military operations:
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In 2006, the US operations in Iraq and Afghanistan burned about 16 gallons of fuel per soldier on average per day, almost twice as much as the year before.
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he camps are ostensibly being built to house and process an "emergency influx of immigrants", which is exactly what the U.S. will be facing between 2008 and 2012 as Mexico's oil production collapses.
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Some people believe that no new refineries have been built due to the efforts of environmentalists. This belief is silly when one considers how much money and political influence the oil industry has compared to the environmental movement.
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Ronald Reagan and George H. Bush were going to let a bunch of pesky environmentalists get in the way of oil refineries being built if the oil companies had really wanted to build them?
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real reason no new refineries have been built for almost 30 years is simple: any oil company that wants to stay profitable isn't going to invest in new refineries when they know there is going to be less and less oil to refine.
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owering their investments in oil exploration and refinery expansion, oil companies have been merging as though the industry is living on borrowed time:
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Mergers and acquisitions are the corporate world's version of cannibalism. When any industry begins to contract/collapse, the larger and more powerful companies will cannibalize/seize the assets of the smaller, weaker companies.
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the true consequences of Peak Oil cannot be acknowledged in such a highly public forum without crashing the financial markets or begging the obvious yet politically-dangerous and "patriotically-incorrect" question:
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Companies such as Exxon have denied Peak Oil because they wanted to convey an atmosphere of abundance as this is conducive both to getting the public to keep on buying and to attracting investors.
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If people knew the truth, they would likely begin drastically curtailing their consumption of oil, which would drive the price down. Investors would likely take action similar to those taken by famed Texas multi-billionaire Richard Rainwater who pulled $500 million out of the financial markets after learning about Peak Oil.
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he top-10 oil groups spent about $8bn combined on exploration last year, but this only led to commercial discoveries with a net present value of slightly less than $4bn.
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significant new oil discoveries are so scarce that looking for them is a monetary loser.
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A June 2006 report indicated the world's biggest five oil companies are now "focusing on developing existing reserves." That's a nice way of saying "there aren't enough significant sized oil fields left to find to make it worth our time and money to look for them.
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During the 1960s, for instance, we consumed about 6 billion barrels per year while finding about 30-60 billion per year. Given those numbers, it is easy to understand why fears of "running out" were so often dismissed as unfounded.Unfortunately, those consumption/discovery ratios have nearly reversed themselves in recent years. We now consume close to 30 billion barrels per year but find less than 4 billion per year.
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Chevron's recent find in the
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Gulf of Mexico, nicknamed "Jack 2", is estimated to hold between 3 billiion and 1
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5 billion barrels of oil. Source Let's assume, for the sake of illustration, Chevron's most optimistic estimate of 15 billion barrels is the most accurate estimate. A fifteen billion barrel field puts the global peak (the halfway mark) off by 7.5 billion barrels.
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t projected rates of oil consumption for the year 2015 it's less than a three month supply.
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Soon after assuming office in 1981, the Reagan Administration abandoned the established policy of pursuing détente with the Soviet Union and instead instituted a massive arms buildup; it also fomented proxy wars in areas of Soviet influence, while denying the Soviets desperately needed oil equipment and technology. Then, in the mid -1980s, Washington persuaded Saudi Arabia to flood the market with cheap oil. Throughout its last decade the USSR pumped and sold its oil at the maximum rate in order to earn income with which to keep up in the arms race and prosecute its war in Afghanistan. Yet with markets awash with cheap Saudi oil, the Soviets were earning less even as they pumped more. Two years after their oil production peaked, the economy and government of the USSR collapsed. Sourc
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Arctic National Wildlife Reserve will solve, or at least delay, this crisis. While drilling for oil in ANWR will certainly make a lot of money for the companies doing the drilling, it won't do much to help the overall situation for three reasons:Reason #1. According of the Department of Energy, drilling in ANWR will only lower oil prices by less than fifty cents;Reason #2. ANWR contains 10 billion barrels of oil - or about the amount the US consumes in a little more than a year.Reason #3. As with all oil projects, ANWR will take about 10 years to come online. Once it does, its production will peak at 875,000 barrels per day - but not till the year 2025. By then the US is projected to need a whopping 35 million barrels per day while the world is projected to need 120 million barrels per day.
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07 Sep 09
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12 Aug 09
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global "Peak Oil."
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Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.
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The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running
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similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body.
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an oil based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.
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ncluding solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. all rely on sophisticated technology and energy-intensive forms of metallurgy.
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Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.
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These estimate comes from numerous sources, not the least of which is Vice President Dick Cheney himself. In a 1999 speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney stated:
By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growthin global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, athree-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That Cheney's assesement is supported by the estimates of numerous non-political, retired, and now disinterested scientists, many of whom believe global oil production will peak and go into terminal decline within the next five years, if it hasn't already. Source
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annestCivilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geolo
daily energia environment future intelligence science money singularity politiikka lifestyle doomsday
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Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.
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24 May 07
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19 May 07
Adam Crowe"It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals."
peakoil energy geopolitics environment economics future oil climate dystopia
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16 May 07
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Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, bankers, and investors in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
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Terry CanaanOil's running out - what are we going to do about it?
environment government politics oil energy future financial reference
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pascalpvkCivilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geolo
Energie_Renouvelable_Peakoil renewableEnergie oil peakOil postoil deliciousImport
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