This link has been bookmarked by 10 people . It was first bookmarked on 01 Sep 2007, by eyal matsliah.
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01 Oct 14
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06 Oct 12
notthis bodyThe Technium: The Maes-Garreau Point http://t.co/9erXQA27
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29 Dec 09
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23 Mar 09
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06 Oct 08
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01 Sep 07
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The present-bound nature of predictions is not news. But forecasts may be more bound to the personal life of the predictor than first appears.
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Maes-Garreau Law: Most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes-Garreau Point.
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The Baby Boom generation (a world-wide phenomenon) has an expected life span of about 80 years. Born about 1950, most baby boomers should be dead by 2040. However all kinds of other powerful things are expected to happen by 2040. China’s economy is due to overtake the US in 2040. 2040 is the average date when the Singularity is supposed to happen. 2040 is when we expect Moore's Law to reach the computational power of a human on a desk top. 2040 is also about when the population of the world is supposed to peak once and for all, and environmental pressure decrease. This grand convergence of global scale disruptors are all scheduled to appear – no surprise – at exactly the date of this generation’s Maes-Garreau Point: 2040.
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22 Jun 07
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16 Mar 07
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Nonetheless, her colleagues really, seriously expected this bridge to immortality to appear soon. How soon? Well, curiously, the dates they predicted for the Singularity seem to cluster right before the years they were expected to die. Isn’t that a coincidence?
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