Around 23% of current Microsoft Exchange customers will leave Microsoft for open source e-mail products within in the next year and a half, according to a survey by research and consulting firm Yankee Group due out next month. If those surveyed actually follow through, it would represent a significant turnaround for a product whose market share is on the rise and relatively dominant in the e-mail market.
The executive summary of the report calls this finding a "stunner" and an "ominous portent for Microsoft."
However, despite the findings, even the report's author views the Exchange migration prediction with a critical eye that looks beyond the few percentage point margin of error. "What people say in the heat of the moment, they won't always carry through on," says Yankee analyst Laura DiDio, relating back to a 2001 survey that had found 38% of respondents saying they'd move completely away from Windows, something that simply hasn't happened. "Customers often go into these things blind."
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