Huntington: Clash of Civilizations

West will increasingly have to accommodate these          non-Western modern civilizations whose power approaches that of the West          but whose values and interests differ significantly from those of the          West. This will require the West to maintain the economic and military          power necessary to protect its interests in relation to these civilizations.          It will also, however, require the West to develop a more profound understanding          of the basic religious and philosophical assumptions underlying other          civilizations and the ways in which people in those civilizations see          their interests. It will require an effort to identify elements of commonality          between Western and other civilizations.

In the short term it is clearly          in the interest of the West to promote greater cooperation and unity within          its own civilization, particularly between its European and North American          components; to incorporate into the West societies in Eastern Europe and          Latin America whose cultures are close to those of the West; to promote          and maintain cooperative relations with Russia and Japan; to prevent          escalation of local          inter-civilization conflicts into major inter-civilization wars; to limit          the expansion of the military strength of Confucian and Islamic states;          to moderate the reduction of counter military capabilities and maintain          military superiority in East and Southwest Asia; to exploit differences          and conflicts among Confucian and Islamic states; to support in other          civilizations groups sympathetic to Western values and interests; to strengthen          international institutions that reflect and legitimate Western interests          and values and to promote the involvement of non-Western states in those          institutions.

differences between civilizations are real and          important; civilization-consciousness is increasing; conflict between          civilizations will supplant ideological and other forms of conflict as          the dominant global form of conflict; international relations, historically          a game played out within Western civilization, will increasingly be de-Westernized          and become a game in which non-Western civilizations are actors and not          simply objects; successful political, security and economic international          institutions are more likely to develop within civilizations than across          civilizations; conflicts between groups in different civilizations will          be more frequent, more sustained and more violent than conflicts between          groups in the same civilization; violent conflicts between groups in different          civilizations are the          most likely and most dangerous source of escalation that could lead to          global wars; the paramount axis of world politics will be the relations          between "the West and the Rest"; the elites in some torn non-Western          countries will try to make their countries part of the West, but in most          cases face major obstacles to accomplishing this; a central focus of conflict          for the immediate future          will be between the West and several Islamic-Confucian states.

In this new form of arms          competition, one side is developing its arms and the other side is attempting          not to balance but to limit and prevent that arms build-up while at the          same time reducing its own military capabilities.

A new form of arms competition          is thus occurring between Islamic-Confucian states and the West.

A Confucian-Islamic military          connection has thus come into being, designed to promote acquisition by          its members of the weapons and weapons technologies needed to counter          the military powers of the West.

Centrally important          to the development of counter-West military capabilities is the sustained          expansion of China's military power and its means to create military power.          Buoyed by spectacular economic development, China is rapidly increasing          its military spending and vigorously moving forward with the modernization          of its armed forces.

Nuclear          weapons, chemical weapons and missiles are viewed, probably erroneously,          as the potential equalizer of superior Western conventional power.

The non-Western          nations, on the other hand, assert their right to acquire and to deploy          whatever weapons they think necessary for their security.

The West promotes          nonproliferation as a universal norm and nonproliferation          treaties and inspections as means of realizing that norm. It also threatens          a variety of sanctions against those who promote the spread of sophisticated          weapons and proposes some benefits for those who do not. The attention          of the West focuses, naturally on nations that are actually or potentially          hostile to the West.

In the post-Cold War world the primary objective          of arms control is to prevent the development by non-Western societies          of military capabilities that could threaten Western interests. The West          attempts to do this through international agreements, economic pressure          and controls on the transfer of arms and weapons technologies.

One result is the          emergence of what Charles Krauthammer has called "Weapon States,"          and the Weapon States are not Western states. Another result is the redefinition          of arms control, which is a Western concept and a Western goal

Those countries that for reason of culture and power do not wish to, or          cannot, join the West compete with the West by developing their own economic,          military and political power. They do this by promoting their internal          development and by cooperating with other non-Western countries. The most          prominent form of this cooperation is the Confucian-Islamic connection          that has emerged to challenge Western interests, values and power.

Australia's future, they argue,          is with the dynamic economies of East Asia. But, as I have suggested,          close economic cooperation normally requires a common cultural base. In          addition, none of the three conditions necessary for a torn country to          join another civilization is likely to exist in Australia's case.

To redefine its civilization          identity, a torn country must meet three requirements. First, its political          and economic elite has to be generally supportive of and enthusiastic          about the move. Second, its public has to be willing to acquiesce in the          redefinition. Third, the dominant groups in the recipient civilization          have to be willing to embrace the convert. All three requirements in large          part exist with respect to Mexico. The first two in large part exist with          respect to Turkey. It is not clear that any of them exist with respect          to Russia's joining the West.

President Yeltsin          is adopting Western principles and goals and seeking to make Russia a          "normal" country and a part of the West. Yet both the Russian          elite and the Russian public are divided on this issue.

Globally the most important torn country is Russia.

Mexico as in Turkey, significant elements in society resist the redefinition          of their country's          identity. In Turkey, European-oriented leaders have to make gestures to          Islam (Ozal's pilgrimage to Mecca); so also Mexico's North American-oriented          leaders have to make gestures to those who hold Mexico to be a Latin American          country (Salinas' Ibero-American Guadalajara summit).

Mexico has stopped defining itself by its opposition to          the United States and is instead attempting to imitate the United States          and to join it in the North American Free Trade Area.

IN THE FUTURE, as          people differentiate themselves by civilization, countries with large          numbers of people of different civilizations, such as the Soviet Union          and Yugoslavia, are candidates for dismemberment. Some other countries          have a fair degree of cultural homogeneity but are divided over whether          their society belongs to one civilization or another.          These are town countries.

The central axis          of world politics in the future is likely to be, in Kishore Mahbubani's          phrase, the conflict between "the West and the Rest" and the          responses of non-Western civilizations to Western power and values.

Western concepts differ fundamentally from those prevalent in          other civilizations. Western ideas of individualism, liberalism, constitutionalism,          human rights, equality, liberty, the rule of law, democracy, free markets,          the separation of church and state, often have little resonance in Islamic,          Confucian, Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist or Orthodox cultures. Western efforts          to propagate each ideas produce instead a reaction against "human          rights imperialism" and a reaffirmation of indigenous values, as          can be seen in the support for religious fundamentalism by the younger          generation in non-Western cultures. The very notion that there could be          a "universal civilization" is a Western idea, directly at odds          with the particularism of most Asian societies and their emphasis on what          distinguishes one people from another.

Differences in power and struggles for          military, economic and institutional power are thus one source of conflict          between the West and other civilizations. Differences in culture, that          is basic values and beliefs, are a second source of conflict.

The West in effect is using international institutions,          military power and economic resources to run the world in ways that will          maintain Western predominance, protect Western interests and promote Western          political and economic values.

THE WEST IS NOW at          an extraordinary peak of power in relation to other civilizations. In          superpower opponent has disappeared from the map. Military conflict among          Western states is unthinkable, and Western military power is unrivaled.          Apart from Japan, the West faces no economic challenge. It dominates international          economic institutions. Global political and security issues are effectively          settled by a directorate of the United States, Britain and France,          world economic issues          by a directorate of the United States, Germany and Japan, all of which          maintain extraordinarily close relations with each other to the exclusion          of lesser and largely non-Western countries.

In the coming years,          the local conflicts most likely to escalate into major wars will be those,          as in Bosnia and the Caucasus, along the fault lines between civilizations.          The next world war, if there is one, will be a war between civilizations.

Common membership in a          civilization reduces the probability of violence in situations where it          might otherwise occur.

Conflicts and violence          will also occur between states and groups within the same civilization.          Such conflicts, however, are likely to be less intense and less likely          to expand than conflicts between civilizations.

In the 1990s the Yugoslav conflict          is provoking intervention from countries that are Muslim, Orthodox and          Western Christian.

The governments of Saudi Arabia and other countries felt under          increasing pressure from fundamentalist groups in their own societies          to provide more vigorous support for the Bosnians.

Islamic governments and groups,          on the other hand, castigated the West for not coming to the defense of          the Bosnians.

Third, with respect          to the fighting in the former Yugoslavia, Western publics manifested sympathy          and support for the Bosnian Muslims and the horrors they suffered at the          hands of the Serbs. Relatively little concern was expressed, however,          over Croatian attacks on Muslims and participation in the dismemberment          of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Russian troops fought on the Side of the Armenians, and Azerbaijan          accused the "Russian government of turning 180 degrees" toward          support for Christian Armenia.

Second, the kin-country syndrome          also appeared in conflicts in the former Soviet Union.

Muslims contrasted          Western actions against Iraq with the West's failure to protect Bosnians          against Serbs and to impose sanctions on Israel for violating U.N. resolutions.          The West, they allege, was using a double standard. A world of clashing          civilizations, however, is inevitably a world of double standards: people          apply one standard to their kin-countries and a different standard          to others.

The rallying of substantial          sections of Arab elites and publics behind Saddam Hussein called those          Arab governments in the anti-Iraq coalition to moderate their activities          and temper their public statements.

First, in the Gulf War one          Arab state invaded another and then fought a coalition of Arab, Western          and other states.

THE KIN-COUNTRY SYNDROME          GROUPS OR STATES belonging to one civilization that become involved in          war with people from a different civilization naturally try to rally support          from other members of their own civilization.

proliferation          of ethnic conflict, epitomized at the extreme in "ethnic cleansing,"          has not been totally random. It has been most frequent and most violent          between groups belonging to different civilizations.

The interactions          between civilizations vary greatly in the extent to which they are likely          to be characterized by violence.

With the Cold War over,          the underlying differences between China and the United States have reasserted          themselves in areas such as human rights, trade and weapons proliferation.          These differences are unlikely to moderate. A "new cold war,"          Deng Xaioping reportedly asserted in 1991, is under way between China          and America.

The economic issues between the United States and Europe are no less serious          than those between the United States and Japan, but they do not have thesame          political salience and emotional intensity because the differences between          American culture and European culture are so much less than those between          American civilization and Japanese civilization.

The same phrase has been applied          to the increasingly difficult relations between Japan and the United States

The historic clash between Muslim          and Hindu in the subcontinent manifests itself now not only is the rivalry          between Pakistan and India but also in intensifying religious strife within          India between increasingly militant Hindu groups and India's substantial          Muslim minority.

On the northern border of          Islam, conflict has increasingly erupted between Orthodox and Muslim peoples,          including the carnage of Bosnia and Sarajevo

Historically, the          other great antagonistic interaction of Arab Islamic civilization has          been with the pagan, animist, and now increasingly Christian black peoples          to the south.

On both sides the          interaction between Islam and the West is seen as a clash of civilizations.

Those relations are also complicated          by demography. The spectacular population growth in Arab countries, particularly          in North Africa, has led to increased migration to Western Europe.

In the Arab world, in short, Western          democracy strengthens anti-Western political forces. This may be a passing          phenomenon, but it surely complicates relations between Islamic countries          and the West.

This centuries-old          military interaction between the West and Islam is unlikely to decline

This warfare between Arabs and the West culminated in 1990

 first Arab          nationalism and then Islamic fundamentalism manifested themselves

Conflict along the fault line          between Western and Islamic civilizations has been going on for 1,300          years.

coincides with the historic boundary between the Hapsburg          and Ottoman empires

As the ideological division of Europe has          disappeared, the cultural division of Europe between Western Christianity,          on the one hand, and Orthodox Christianity and Islam, on the other, has          reemerged.

The clash of civilizations          thus occurs at two levels. At the micro-level, adjacent groups along the          fault lines between civilizations struggle, often violently, over the          control of territory and each other. At the macro-level, states from different          civilizations compete for relative military and economic power, struggle          over the control of international institutions and third parties, and          competitively promote          their particular political and religious values.

As people define          their identity in ethnic and religious terms, they are likely to see an          "us" versus "them" relation existing between themselves          and people of different ethnicity or religion.

Culture and religion also          form the basis of the Economic Cooperation Organization, which brings          together ten non-Arab Muslim countries

Common culture, in          contrast, is clearly facilitating the rapid expansion of the economic          relations between the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong, Taiwan,          Singapore and the overseas Chinese communities in other Asian countries.

The importance of regional economic blocs is likely to continue to increase          in the future. On the one hand, successful economic regionalism will reinforce          civilization-consciousness. On the other hand, economic regionalism may          succeed only when it is rooted in a common civilization.

Finally, economic regionalism is increasing.

A de-Westernization          and indigenization of elites is occurring in many non-Western countries          at the same time that Western, usually American, cultures, styles and          habits become more popular among the mass of the people

A West at the peak of its power confronts          non-Wests that increasingly have the desire, the will and the resources          to shape the world          in non-Western ways.

Fourth, the growth          of civilization-consciousness is enhanced by the dual role of the West.

In much of the world religion has moved in to          fill this gap, often in the form of movements that are labeled "fundamentalist."

Third, the processes of economic          modernization and social change throughout the world are separating people          from longstanding local identities

Second, the world is becoming a smaller place

First, differences among civilizations          are not only real; they are basic

These include Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox,          Latin American and possibly African civilization.

The most important conflicts          of the future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating these          civilizations from one another.

The broader reaches of human          history have been the history of civilizations

Civilizations are nonetheless          meaningful entities, and while the lines between them are seldom sharp,          they are real.

The civilization to which he belongs is the broadest level          of identification with which he intensely identifies.

in terms of their culture and civilization.

group countries

With the          end of the Cold War, international politics moves out of its Western phase,          and its center-piece becomes the interaction between the West and non-Western          civilizations and among non-Western civilizations. In the politics of          civilizations, the people and governments of non-Western civilizations          no longer remain the objects of history as targets of Western colonialism          but join the West as movers and shapers of history.

Western civil wars

ideology

It is my hypothesis          that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be          primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among          humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation          states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the          principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and          groups of different          civilizations. The clash of civilizations will be the battle lines of          the future.

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