Economists tell us that higher oil prices will stimulate investment in energy alternatives. However, the prospects for a painless market-driven transition away from fossil fuels are hardly encouraging. Globally, trillions of dollars will have to be spent on research and on new infrastructureÑtens or hundreds of billions per year, starting immediately. We are not seeing anything like that level of investment now; we have to assume that it will begin after the global oil peak (that is, after an obvious price signal making alternatives more attractive). But then, with less energy available to fuel the economy, we will have trouble simply maintaining basic services. There won’t be any surplus to jumpstart the new energy infrastructure, which will take decades to build.
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