This link has been bookmarked by 2 people . It was first bookmarked on 08 Apr 2008, by Zhuu Ming Ang.
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02 Jul 08
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It all depends on trust.
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08 Apr 08
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It would be convenient to blame the regulators for all that, but the system is stacked against them. They are paid less than those they oversee. They know less, they may be less able, they think like the financial herd, and they are shackled by politics. In an open economy, business can escape a regulatory squeeze in one country by skipping offshore. Once a bubble is inflating many factors conspire to discourage a regulator from pricking it.
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And even if you could put all that right, regulators would still fail, because of the nature of finance itself. Financial progress is about learning to deal with strangers in more complex ways. The village moneylender, limited by his need to know those he did business with, was gradually superseded by ever-broader impersonal markets that can cheaply mobilise colossal sums and sell more complex products. The remarkable thing is not that finance suffers from booms and busts, but that it works at all. People who would not dream of lending £1,000 to that nice family three doors down routinely hand over their life savings to strangers in a South Korean chaebol or an Atlantan start-up. It all depends on trust.
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Regulators cannot know how trust will ebb and flow as new markets develop the experience and practice they need to work better. They therefore cannot predict the peril of new ideas. They have to let new markets develop, or stifle them. The system learns—dangerous junk bonds are reborn as respectable high-yield debt; bankers will now be scared of extreme leverage—but it is delicate, as the world learned last summer. The regulator is condemned to muddle through.
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The notion that the world can just regulate its way out of crises is thus an illusion. Rather, crisis is the price of innovation, so governments face a choice. They can embrace new financial ideas by keeping markets open. Regulation will be light, but there will be busts. The state will sometimes have to clear up and regulation must be about cure as well as prevention. Or governments can aim for safety and opt for dumbed-down financial systems that hobble their economies and deprive their people of the benefits of faster growth. And even then a crisis may strike.
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