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saved byJohn L. Knight on 2008-07-17

  • The Syrian regime doesn't want the Shebaa Farms imbroglio resolved because it seeks to tie in any settlement over the Golan Heights to one in Lebanon. Without this linkage, Syria fears that a prior solution on the Lebanese track would block Hizbullah's ability to attack Israel from South Lebanon, which Syria wishes to use as leverage in its negotiations over the Golan. But for Syria to have real control of the Hizbullah card - an essential ingredient in strengthening its credibility in talks with Israel - it must also prove that it has the means to restrain the party. And Assad can only do that if his army is physically present in Lebanon.