This link has been bookmarked by 4 people . It was first bookmarked on 08 Sep 2009, by Joel Liu.
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Stefanos KaragosNonprofits
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What distinguishes people who are great at what they do from those who are just mediocre? The answer, it seems, is feedback. If you lose a chess game, it’s pretty obvious you lost. You know right away, you feel bad, and you start thinking about what you did wrong and how you can improve.
Making a bad prediction isn’t like that. First, it’s months or years before your prediction is proven wrong. And then, you make yourself feel better by coming up with some explanation for why you were wrong: well, nobody expected that to happen; it threw everything else off! And so you keep on making predictions in the same way — which means you never get good at it.
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