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10 Oct 08
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As the economy slows, the proportion of non-performing loans in the state-controlled banking sector is certain to rise, bumping up the government's contingent liabilities. That's important, because although the official ratio of bad loans at the end of June was just 5.6 per cent of banks' total loan books, the absolute amount was more than 17 times the government's budget surplus for the whole of last year. Clearly it wouldn't take much of an increase to knock a big hole in banks' capital and, ultimately, in the government's own finances.
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As the first of the two charts below shows, both government revenues and spending have increased sharply in recent years. Beijing did indeed run a surplus in 2007, but only because revenue growth fractionally outstripped the rise in expenditure at the very peak of the cycle. Unfortunately for finance ministry officials, history tells us that when the economic cycle turns down, revenues tend to fall rapidly, while spending proves a lot more "sticky". As a result, fiscal positions quickly deteriorate and budget surpluses soon turn into deficits.
There are ominous signs that this is happening in China. As the second chart shows, government revenue in August was just 10 per cent higher than in the same month in 2007. That compares with a rise of 32 per cent for 2007 as a whole. And there are signals China's fiscal position will get a great deal worse before it gets better. Tax reform earlier this year has already damped corporate tax revenue from domestic companies. Now with profit growth slowing abruptly - the country's biggest listed aluminium producer warned yesterday that third-quarter profits would be down 50 per cent from last year - revenue from corporate taxes is set to fall steeply.
That's not all. The property market is cooling. Home sales in Beijing and Shanghai were down around 80 per cent in September compared with the previous year. As a result, government revenues from property taxes and land sales are also likely to head south.
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The PMI in September fell to 47.7, a sharp decline from August's 49.2, PMI in Q4 shall continue heading down [likely 45.9 for Oct, etc.]. Exports have been down as well, even the dollar might rally in the coming weeks, it wouldn't subdue much of the negativity for Chinese exports.
I guess benchmark SSE might fall around 1'400 around Mid-Jan to Early Feb, 2009.
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