This link has been bookmarked by 216 people . It was first bookmarked on 02 Mar 2006, by Jeff dalton.
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Richard TerryA cool but humane take on the greed culture driving the financial markets - and just about everything else these days.
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linkmessto see Niall Ferguson's The Ascent of Money on google videos, plus other bits tracking the slowing Chinese economy.
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Brad RiceNice read on stocks and investing
technology tech stocks investment money venturecapital venture
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Bassem Kblog on finance
blog finance economy economics internet technology web2.0 wallstreet _fromdelicious
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raman srinivasanI can't testify to the quality of the underlying data, but the findings in this employee survey are worth sharing:
* More than half (54%) of employed Americans report that they are likely to look for new jobs once the economy turns around.
* 71% of those between 18-29 are likely to look for new jobs once the upturn begins.
* Only 22 percent of Americans are saving money to prepare for a layoff.-
an investment bank with a car showroom attached.
-- Analyst quoted in Times of London -
. The first phase is what the US is now experiencing, and that is mainly coming from the liquidity crisis. FRB has provided a credit line close to $1 trillion and major institutions are now at the mercy of this facility. We lost Yamaichi and Sanyo Securities during the first phase of the crisis because they could not pull money from the inter-bank facilities. The second phase comes mainly from working out the bad assets. They face the problem as the write-offs far exceed the equity and they can not raise fresh capital from the market as their share price falls to a meaningless level. The Long-term Credit Bank of Japan, Nippon Credit Bank and Hokkaido Takushoku Bank all failed due to the write offs coming from loans to failing or failed companies. At this stage, it is important for the government to inject fresh capital to let the banks revive and return to their normal operation. In doing so, the Government could end up owning a bank directly or through debt-equity-swap.
The third phase is characterized by the massive failures of operating companies. This is because survived financial institutions are under severe surveillance of the Government and they can not easily extend loans to traditional customers, or corporations. Japan has lost hundreds of companies , such as Daiei, the largest retailer in Japan, in Phase 3. So, what Mr.Geithner talks about, i.e. Japan’s failure to address the right issues at the right time, is absolutely correct. What I am not sure is if the Americans are addressing the right issues with the right priorities and sequence, and how long it will take to get back to “business as usual”. It has taken Japan 15 years.
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If Wall Street were truly serious about convincing Main Street that we're all in this together, its top executives would have stepped before the cameras yesterday and promised not to cut lines of credits to long-standing business customers who have never missed a payment.
They would have committed themselves not to foreclose on any homeowner who is willing and able to refinance into a new, government-guaranteed, fixed-rate mortgage set at 85 percent of the current value of the property.
They would have offered to suspend dividend payments until capital levels had been restored to pre-crisis levels.
They would have given us their solemn promise not to advise clients to hold on to their own investments while quietly dumping whatever they can from their own portfolios and shorting every security in sight.
With the Treasury now desperate for help in managing its new rescue efforts, they would have volunteered, at no cost to taxpayers, the services of some of those investment bankers and financial wizards who now don't have much else to do.
And the maharajas of finance could have set a wonderful example if they had all gotten together and agreed to work for a dollar a year until the crisis has passed.
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That is staggering. In a very real sense, the sport of swimming is an utterly different place: There is pre-Beijing swimming, and there is post-Beijing swimming. With some races in Beijing having as many as five finishers coming in faster than the previous world record, we have essentially thrown the old rules out the window and started the sport all over again. The authors argue, and I mostly agree, that this is a problem for the sport, and certainly not a symptom of a credible pursuit.
You can, I think, say the same thing in capital markets. There is the leverage-happy super-market that existed prior to September 2008 -- call that the bodysuit period -- and there is the much less levered market towards which we are unwinding today. Many people, however, persist in viewing the world through multiples, techniques and signposts that worked 5-15 years ago, even those belong to an already bygone age. The step function in the market, as opposed to the usual cyclical transition to and then from recession, is what is important here. We discredit capital markets entirely by the jump change, and going forward cannot be smooth, whatever the extrapolation-happy equity-uber-alles sorts might think
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Exxon Mobil was up a little more than 17% today. That works out to a gain of roughly $50-billion in market capitalization, or about the GDP of Luxembourg -- or six pre-Monday Morgan Stanleys.
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That darn Harvard MBA contrarian signal just keeps on working like a charm. The latest Harvard MBA career choice data is out, and here is where those folks were going as boom turned to bust. Prviate equity and LBOs were on a rocket ride higher, and while investment management and i-banking had turned down, they weren't that far behind. (Click the graph for a larger version.)
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asco de Gama and Spice Markets
<!--post meta info-->By Paul Kedrosky · <!-- The author's name as a link to his archive --> Wednesday, April 1, 2009 · <!-- the timestamp --><!--end .meta-top--> <!--post text with the read more link-->
Discuss (5) · <script src="http://w.sharethis.com/button/sharethis.js#tabs=web%2Cemail&charset=utf-8&services=reddit%2Cdigg%2Cfacebook%2Cmyspace%2Cdelicious%2Cstumbleupon%2Cyahoo_buzz%2Cgoogle_bmarks%2Cfriendfeed%2Cnewsvine&style=default&publisher=8d03b01e-33cd-48a6-9cd6-ac0821cb06a1&linkfg=%23002266" type="text/javascript"></script>ShareThis Interesting new paper :
Did Vasco de Gama matter for European markets?
By KEVIN H. O'ROURKE 1 and JEFFREY G. WILLIAMSON 2
ABSTRACT
This article explores the impact of the 'Voyages of Discovery' on European spice markets, asking whether the exploits of Vasco da Gama and others brought European and Asian spice markets closer together. To this end we compare trends in pepper and fine spice prices before and after 1503, the year when da Gama returned from his financially successful second voyage.
... We find that the Voyages of Discovery had a major impact on European spice markets, and provide a simple model of monopoly and oligopoly to decompose the sources of the Cape route's impact on European markets. Finally, we offer some speculations regarding the impact of the Cape route on intra-European market integration.
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Bees, Nesting and Markets
<!--post meta info-->By Paul Kedrosky · <!-- The author's name as a link to his archive --> Tuesday, March 31, 2009 · <!-- the timestamp --><!--end .meta-top--> <!--post text with the read more link-->Discuss (2) · <script src="http://w.sharethis.com/button/sharethis.js#tabs=web%2Cemail&charset=utf-8&services=reddit%2Cdigg%2Cfacebook%2Cmyspace%2Cdelicious%2Cstumbleupon%2Cyahoo_buzz%2Cgoogle_bmarks%2Cfriendfeed%2Cnewsvine&style=default&publisher=8d03b01e-33cd-48a6-9cd6-ac0821cb06a1&linkfg=%23002266" type="text/javascript"></script>ShareThis Fascinating piece on bee nesting behavior, with some obvious implications for how we should think about independence and interdependence in functioning markets:
We have developed an agent-based model of nest-site choice among honeybees. The model not only explicitly represents the behaviour of each individual bee as a simple stochastic process, but it also allows us to simulate the bees' decision-making behaviour under a wide variety of empirically motivated as well as hypothetical assumptions. The model predicts that, consistently with empirical observations by Seeley & Buhrman (2001), the bees manage to reach a consensus on the best nest site for a large range of parameter conditions, under both more and less demanding criteria of consensus. Moreover, the model shows that the remarkable reliability of the bees' decision-making process stems from the particular interplay of independence and interdependence between them. The bees are independent in assessing the quality of different nest sites on their own, but interdependent in giving more attention to nest sites that are more strongly advertised by others.
Without interdependence, the rapid convergence of the bees' dances to a consensus would be undermined; there would not be a ‘snowballing’ of attention on the best nest site. Without independence, a consensus would still emerge, but it would no longer robustly be on the best nest site; instead, many bees would end up dancing for nest sites that accidentally receive some initial support through random fluctuations. It is only when independence and interdependence are combin
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The $12 trillion contraction in wealth and the end of mortgage equity withdrawals suggest US consumption should decline by 7.6% of GDP. That would give a peak-to-trough real GDP decline of 4-5%. Not the Great Depression, but considerably deeper than OECD’s new forecast.
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- On the Urgency of Restructuring Bank and Mortgage Debt, and of Abandoning Toxic Asset Purchases (Hussman Funds)
- PM tells Canada's banks to expand overseas (InfoViewer)
- Google to Commit $100 Million to VC Fund (TheStreet)
- The Idiot's Guide to Pakistan (Foreign Policy)
- The Center Cannot Hold (Foreign Policy)
- There Is No Congo (Foreign Policy)
- Rush Limbaugh: The Man Who Ate the G.O.P. (VanityFair)
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Other than insisting on using notional value to really hike up the Fear Factor (and to irritate me), the current Fortune has a required reading article on credit default swaps (CDS). Best characterized as an insurance market run by under-capitalized non-insurers for people who only want to pretend their debt is insured, the CDS business's vestiges are dangling out there waiting to explode, like abandoned ordinance.
Here's a snippet:
It doesn't help that CDS trading is a haphazard process. Most contracts are bought and sold over the phone or by instant message and settled manually. Settlement has been sloppy, confirms Jamie Cawley of IDX Capital, a firm that brokers trades between big banks. Pushed by New York Fed president Timothy Geithner, the players have been improving the process. But even as recently as a year ago, Cawley says, so many trades were sitting around unfulfilled that "there were $1 trillion worth of swaps that were unsettled among counterparties."
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I've long argued that part of the reason why things have gotten to this point is that we don't have enough smaller banking crises, so we just have the odd epochal one instead. It's much the same point as is made in fire ecology: Regular smaller fires are both safer and less ecosystem-damaging than periodic conflagrations.
Check the following figure to see how dangerously quiet recent banking history has been:
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Page Comments
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