This link has been bookmarked by 1 people . It was first bookmarked on 09 Nov 2009, by Alex Ko.
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09 Nov 09
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The problem that I see with track records is, most people, especially when desperate for more help, never look beyond it and just take everything people with good track records say at face value, and don't dig any deeper.
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A long string of successes often blinds us to luck's effect on those outcomes, and we start feeling an aura of invincibility and treating future ventures with an inevitability of success, which is very dangerous.
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People who don't take risk into account are dangerous for you to be associated with, especially if they have a history of successes. Those successes have probably made them too confident in the way they do things, and are too arrogant to admit mistakes and change.
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Which person/choice improves my probabilities the most for what I want to do?
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