Oil can fuel the engine of the economy, with other industries creating jobs. But over the years, easy money from oil has distorted investment decisions, allowing Nigeria to neglect other industries. Some 95 percent or more of its foreign-exchange earnings come from oil, and with the current stratospheric prices, Nigeria might think it has no reason to look beyond oil. Its reserves are about 36 billion barrels, and at the current rate of production, it has enough oil to last another 40 years.
After that, what? Better management of oil revenues is one solution. Reflecting on the destructive role sudden wealth can play, policymakers have tried monitoring oil revenues. But the effort hasn’t borne any fruit. Take for instance Chad. When oil was discovered in the Chad basin and the Chad-Cameroon pipeline was built, the World Bank insisted on conditions to ensure that revenues would be deposited in an escrow account, with funds only used for approved development expenditures. However, with conflict in Darfur and the presence of hundreds of thousands of refugees on the border, Chad now ignores those commitments some of the time, and spends more on defense. Rising oil revenues, thanks to rising prices, means there are limits to the absorptive capacity in Chad for more development expenditure. A waste of those resources is, then, inevitable.
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