This link has been bookmarked by 68 people . It was first bookmarked on 17 May 2007, by someone privately.
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11 Dec 14
Joel BirchMore interesting than the Horizon Report is the process used to develop it. Delphi Method. http://t.co/0QfRzXtMtW #edtech #21CLHK
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Cathy HuntMore interesting than the Horizon Report is the process used to develop it. Delphi Method. http://t.co/0QfRzXtMtW #edtech #21CLHK
– John Burns (j0hnburns) http://twitter.com/j0hnburns/status/542862836213362688 -
11 Mar 14
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Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.
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02 Feb 14
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23 Sep 13
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Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
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Delphi method
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06 Apr 13
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ured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of expert
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tator provides an anonymous summary of the e
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for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the g
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s based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups
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opinions on likelihood and expected development time, o
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1964 by Gordon and Helmer
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ssessed the direction of long-term trends in science and technology development, covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs, population control, automation, space progress, war prevention and weapon systems
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ther forecasts of technology were dealing with vehicle-highway systems, industrial robots, intelligent internet, broadband connections, and technology in education.
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related to public policy issues, such as economic trends, health and education
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Dionne CampbellHIT5323
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24 Jan 12
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Other versions, such as the Policy Delphi,[3] have been designed for normative and explorative use, particularly in the area of social policy and public health.[4] In Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for interactive decision-making and e-democracy.[5]
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22 Dec 11
Mark WilliamsThe Delphi method ( /ˈdɛlfaɪ/ del-fy) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts
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20 Sep 11
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05 Dec 10
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29 Jun 10
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based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
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attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself.
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weakness of the Delphi method is that future developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts
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16 Jun 10
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16 Feb 10
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The Delphi method (
/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.[1]In the standard version, the experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.[2]
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30 Oct 09
Carrie Ashendela systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts based on the principle that forecasts from a structured group of experts are more accurate than those from unstructured groups or individuals.
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16 Sep 09
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future developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts
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future developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts.
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S JonesAlgorithm for obtaining accurate forecasts from independent experts
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